FTSE & DAX Market Update dt 24 Mar 2010

Refer FTSE and DAX Chart
FTSE: Wave 3 in process, possible Head and Shoulder (or Cup and Handle) bearish break down. Possbile targer for FTSE is 4257 while curreent price is 5062. This is further to previous analysis on FTSE & DAX .

FTSE Chart:

 DAX:

Further to previous analysis done on DAX  see wave3  in action in DAX with target of 5030 (current price of DAX 5829).

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Nifty, RIL, SBI: Commentary dated 24th may 2010

Nifty Update:
I hate changing counts, but it seems, the 5200 aim is goin to fall short, and possibly wave 5 of wave 1 can be an extension down. Wave 3 down was exactly 1.618x of wave 1. I forgot one rule of wave, "either of motive wave can be an extension. In case of extension, i am expecting wave 5 to be 2.618x of 1 - with target of approx 4600, for this the sell-off has to a be fast. Lets see, sub 4850, i expect the sell off to be fast, for now, I am not able to post target based on 60 min chart. Wave 5 can reach anywhere between 4800 to 4600. Why i am not able to sure, is because of attached SBI and RIL chart are more bearish and possible can be entering wave 3, which shall be very bearish for the market.
Following are Nifty, RIL and SBIN Charts.

Nifty:

RIL

SBIN

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Nifty Update: 5200 coming

Chart attached, wave 2 in play now..

5200 coming.

 Possiblility of new low cannot be ruled out. Break of 4900 - 4850 can give lower target. For now, for a longer tf, target is 5200 with SL of 4850 odd level.


These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Europe: FTSE & DAX: Elliott Wave

 Refer, my previous post on EURUSD which talks of near annhilation of EUR, and now with those intelligent human beings throwing $1tn on currency which is based on so much of debt is not jus ridiculous, but speaks of mere complacency of Governments, in understanding the situation. These smart bureaucrats hatched a plan to give more loan to countries who are already indebted and owe eachother nearly equal to each others GDP. This is awesome, way to run a country.

Having said that, there are my relfections on elliott wave count for UK (FTSE) and Germany (DAX).

FTSE:
Lenght of wave 1: 5833 - 5045 = 788 points.
Generally wave 2 retraces 61.8% of wave 1 or 80% of wave 1. Currently for wave 2, I have taking 5435 as the top. At that rate, the wave 2 have retraced 50% of wave 1.
Now, wave 1 is 788 points, that is very very big.

Wave 3 shall be most devastating of all the wave forms. Based on this wave 3 shall be 1.618x of wave 1 i.e. 788 x 1.618 = 1275. From 5435, that would mean a target of wave 3 would be 4160. A break of Trendline Q, will make way for FTSE target to 4160.

Chart:

 DAX:
I would love to write economic situation of Germany, but some fellow bloggers are doing exceedingly good job their, and what I will be doing is repeating their words, would do that sometime in future, but not now.

Here goes DAX: 6341 is currently considered by as wave Z top (wave 2 / B of Primary degree).

Accordingly frm 6341 to 5655 is considered as wave 1, and current retracement from 5655 to 6276 shall be taken as wave 2. The wave 2 has now retraced ard 90% of wave 1. This is good sign. HIgher retracement calls for deeper wave 3 down target. The lenght of wave 1 has been 686 points. Wave 3 can be 1.618x of wave 1, which shall be 686 x 1.618 = 1110, accordingly from wave 2, 1110 down shall be 5166. So, currentlyu 5166 shall be the target of wave 3 down. Above 6341, the wave count will be required to be revisited. The break of X'-1 shall be confirm this down target.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

State Bank of India: Elliott Wave Update

SBIN, seems to have completed wave 2 top at 2347. Open for wave 3 down, with target for 1405. REcall in Dec 09, i had posted a charts of banks calling top. The top posted for SBIN then, has not been breached. In fact, based on that post, i reckon a target of Rs. 1000 for SBIN. 

Following is the chart, i had posted then:

Link to the image

Now, a closer scrutiny of the chart above suggests the first fall frm Jan 2007 been named as W-X-Y (3 down), rise again from bottom named as A-B-C (3 wave up),where the up wave retraced the entire down move. Now making first down move as A, then the top as B on primary degree. For now, based on the top, we are headed for 5 wave down to complete wave C, which can be equal to wave A or 1.618 of wave A. At equal to wave A, would put a target of Rs. 950 - Rs. 1000 on SBIN.

Current Scenario: Currently i am marking the top as at 2347 as wave 2 end, with target of wave 3 been Rs. 1405.


Refer current chart:

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Reliance Industries Limited (RIL): Elliott Wave Update

RELIANCE:

For now, I am presumming reliance has made a Primary degree top in Apr 2010, and now reliance is on the verge of completing wave 2 top. I have marked the down move from Apr 2010 to 7th may 2010 as impulsive 5 wave down. The 1090 level was 61.8% retracement zone for the entire wave 1 down from 1150 to 976. An action of wave 3 down could pose a target of Rs. 927 then Rs. 823. Following are two charts of Reliance.



Refer chart:

 RIL: Close up count:

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Nifty Scenarios

As is pretty evident from my previous posts, i am bearish on market. But, then i am trader as well, and look at both sides of the story or both sides of market.

So here i present two scenarios: these are 60 minute charts

Bullish Scenario:

 Bearish Scenario:

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

EUR USD: Monthly HnS

The credit for this chart goes to Mr. Rohit Srivastava, i had received the chart from him. I am takin this chart from GCI Trading platform.

There is huge Monthly Head and Shoulder (HnS) on EURUSD. The current price of EUR USD is 1.2730. Based on HnS, target works to 0.9002

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Mega Chart Post: Part 1

This is astounding, i mean, the  number of stocks that are screwed is increasing by each click here. The following are charts, that i feel are in structure, and wher they are yet to break the levels, the same are given with targets.

1. 3I - Infotech:

Second structure, somewhat a Flaggish, in fact below Rs. 70 is major bearish for stock. The stock is now at 72.40, with target of Rs. 55.

2. ABAN
The current price of Aban is 1098. The immediate target is 980. In fact, below 1058, will be major bearish the break of line A, shall be really bad for the stock. I would expect Rs. 400 down from Rs. 1058, making target of ABAN to 550 odd levels.

ABB: the engineering behemoth. I had once posted a chart, having a target of Rs. 600, the price then was 828, and had a SL of 850, but stock moved to Rs. 870, triggering out of stock. But, now, i see the stock, feel like a fool., This was double triangle, it stil had a tgt of Rs. 600. The current price of ABB is 696. This is late. Posting the chart though. The look at the triangle at the Apex of ABB. Similar is appearing in Canara Bank, i guess the results will not be different.

ABB Chart:

Canara Bank:

The above triangle is similar to the one on ABB. I see the stock moving down sharply, In fact primary target  on Canbk would be 360 odd levels, the current price is Rs. 439.

ABG Shipyard:
Below, 246, flag break down and break of b-d trendline. The stock has made a wolfe wave sort of structure. The stock has target based on the a-d line. The price cannot be put in. In fact, breaking 246, would give a flag breakdown with the target of 186. The current price of stock is 254.

ATLANTA:
Wow. this stock is showing text book rising wedge. Breaking the blue line, will make make the stock understand the rules of gravity.

Aurobindo Pharma:
The break of the line a shall be mega bearish. Sort of rising triangle with apex. If the stock goes above 960, 1020 levels are possible, but break of the above line a can take stock to first Rs. 800 and we can further assess the expected damage. Wait for Line A to break. 

In fact , break of Rs.  900 will push stock to head and shoulder pattern marked in blue box with a target of Rs. 811. and this shall result in break of rising wedge sort of structure.
looks like a wedge.. Look at following chart:

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

L&T: HnS, support at 1400

LT:

I am late in posting this chart, it is already in structure. LT has made an HnS. The current price of LT is 1526, the HnS target is 1432. However, it can reach 1400, where due to previous support bounce is expected.

Longer term chart of LT.

 Bull case:

On the other hand, if LT goes above and 1700, then this wil be a GAINT FLAG Breakout, in fact that will take the stock to MOON. I mean, all target etc will be points, it will be in Orbit. Watch out for that. On downside, the above targets are in place.
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

NSE 500: A good case for Top..

This post is primarily bearish and gives a possible bullish case well. That does not mean, that I am confused, but rather keeping open all price actions. The NSE 500 is a broader index with 500 shares of traded on index, this can be a good measure of market.

The high made in Index in Jan 2010 did not get voilated, in fact from that point it raced down with market. This i would like to put in as wave 1. The subsequent upmove to Apr 2010 levels was wave 2.

As of now, i believe the broader market has topped out.

The above chart is major bearish, in fact suggesting formation of Primary wave B / wave 2 top, in Jan 2010 at 4500 level. Currently, the index is at 4256, a break below 4000, can take the index to 3500.

In fact under the current bearish preferred wave count, and we having completed wave 2 at 4449 (in blue font), we are in wave 3. The target of this wave would be takin 1.618x of wave 1 be 3621 level on this index. Below 4000, there shall be a cup and handle formation with distance to be covered been 500 points down from 4000, making it target zone of 3500. This is the broader index, and major correction shall creep in stocks.

A close look at the chart, wil give a rather clear picture:
The targets are posted on chart:

 Bullish Case:

A move above 4500 shall be extremely bullish, pushing the index to 5000 levels. There shall be a cup and handle, and the currently labeled wave 2 shall be the lip of cup.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Nifty next and update on old charts of Nifty, Copper and Crude

Now,  where do i start this post from. Since, i have restarted this blog again from 16 Apr 2010 i have been rather bearish over the market. I had posted two charts then one Weekly and one Daily.
The weekly chart had suggested a major trendline break, and i have posted then that market "The weekly charts suggests a major downside possible. On weekly charts, based on EW, is see a pattern likely resembling Ending Daigonal (ED) on verge of completion. Yes, ED wave e can overshoot the trendline, so, i would not be surprise for a high of 5500 on NF (80% retracement). But, having said that, major downsides are open for now."
 Accordinly from from 5263, the then weekly close Nifty has moved to 5087 now, maintaining the break to the trendline.

There still exists an Ending Daigonal / Wolfe Wave sort of structure on Nifty. In fact, the wave count is rather more apparent more. I had marked at the top wave e to end at 5400 levels, although leaving a room for more highs, but having the primary outlook as bearish. This has rather played out well.

Nifty has moved down significantly lower from those levels. The then high at approx 5400, and currently Nifty having closed at 5087 (low 5025). The fall out has been rapid in past few days.

In the post dated 30 Apr 2010, had put a 30 min wave count chart on Nifty. The wave count i believe has been pretty tight and right. I am now adding the updated wave count.

Nifty is poised for a downside. In fact, the support seems to be there at 4960 (200 days SMA, and old Cup and Handle target - i had not posted this cup and handle chart).

Outlook on EOD:
Nifty tomo shall be in wave (v) of wave 3 of wave major wave 1. For now, downside targets are open, and am not putting a number to anything for now.
The wave 3 has not yet ended. Infact, wave 3 target at 1.618 of wave 1 (5400 - 5162) works out to 4962, while 2.618x of wave 1 works out to 4742 and 2x wave 1 works out to 4900. These can be bounce areas. Apparently, as stated above, the 200 days moving average is at 4960. This is an important level. Already we are below, all important averages, 55 EMA, 89 SMA, 50 SMA, 100 SMA on daily charts.

Crude Oil:
In the post dated 21 Apr 2010,  i had posted the following chart of crude oil:

With price targets as: I am under the impression that the following prices shall be target level for the crude oil:
 

Target 1: $ 70 : Target 2: $65 : Target 3: $58

 Currently crude oil is at $76.67, sitting on its 200 days moving average. It seems, the price of $70 is not far away, I am thinking is the Top for crude oil. But, there is no point in been overconfident. In fact the next charts, weekly and daily shows major support line for crude. The above targets continue to hold.

The following is current crude oil chart:

The 200 day SMA of crude is 76.67, and crude is sitting right on top of it.

The weekly chart of Crude:

Crude oil has closed below its 200 week moving average, which is at $77.06 This shal be a big factor for crude. However, tomorrow close would give a better picture, as the week is yet to end.

Copper: and Metal Stocks:

Will be adding in next post, with reference to blog update on commodities done on 18 Apr 2010.

Following was the chart of copper then, when had said, that below $340, copper shall have major weakness.

Current Copper chart: As of now, copper is at $320, moving down from then price of copper of $350. This fall has been rapid.Copper now has support at 200 days moving average at 311.99. This place could stall the down move for copper.

Will post an update on metal stocks tht had posted in previous post.




These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students