Friday, May 14, 2010

Europe: FTSE & DAX: Elliott Wave

 Refer, my previous post on EURUSD which talks of near annhilation of EUR, and now with those intelligent human beings throwing $1tn on currency which is based on so much of debt is not jus ridiculous, but speaks of mere complacency of Governments, in understanding the situation. These smart bureaucrats hatched a plan to give more loan to countries who are already indebted and owe eachother nearly equal to each others GDP. This is awesome, way to run a country.

Having said that, there are my relfections on elliott wave count for UK (FTSE) and Germany (DAX).

FTSE:
Lenght of wave 1: 5833 - 5045 = 788 points.
Generally wave 2 retraces 61.8% of wave 1 or 80% of wave 1. Currently for wave 2, I have taking 5435 as the top. At that rate, the wave 2 have retraced 50% of wave 1.
Now, wave 1 is 788 points, that is very very big.

Wave 3 shall be most devastating of all the wave forms. Based on this wave 3 shall be 1.618x of wave 1 i.e. 788 x 1.618 = 1275. From 5435, that would mean a target of wave 3 would be 4160. A break of Trendline Q, will make way for FTSE target to 4160.

Chart:


 DAX:
I would love to write economic situation of Germany, but some fellow bloggers are doing exceedingly good job their, and what I will be doing is repeating their words, would do that sometime in future, but not now.

Here goes DAX: 6341 is currently considered by as wave Z top (wave 2 / B of Primary degree).

Accordingly frm 6341 to 5655 is considered as wave 1, and current retracement from 5655 to 6276 shall be taken as wave 2. The wave 2 has now retraced ard 90% of wave 1. This is good sign. HIgher retracement calls for deeper wave 3 down target. The lenght of wave 1 has been 686 points. Wave 3 can be 1.618x of wave 1, which shall be 686 x 1.618 = 1110, accordingly from wave 2, 1110 down shall be 5166. So, currentlyu 5166 shall be the target of wave 3 down. Above 6341, the wave count will be required to be revisited. The break of X'-1 shall be confirm this down target.






These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

1 comment:

Hermit said...

Hi Vivek,
Any view on Suzlon as per the last 6 days EOD data I am getting a falling wedge pattern. Your thought on the near short term view will be appreciated.