Reliance

Reliance breaksout and that too in style...
Heading for the 5th wave up..
With that looks like nifty in BULLISH ALT (red) count based earlier chart.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Reliance Analysis dated 6th Jul 2010

RIL completed it wave 1 down move [depicted in yellow font orange box] on an open low of Rs. 976 on 30th June. From that point Reliance has moved up in a flat formation 3-3-5 depicted in blue font a-b-c, ending at 30 Jun high of Rs. 1093. The rise of wave c od wave wave 2 has been a rather a Rising Diagonal type structure, a  break of line connect TL 1 shall be majorly bearish for reliance. The monthly pivot for reliance is at 1056, a rather strong support. The 34 EMA is at Rs. 1054. The bottom supports are in place. I expect a break of TL 1, which shall trigger a wave 3 for reliance, with a target of approximately Rs. 825.

Further the ATR is a lowest from Jan 2010, which also signals an change in trend is possible. Generally a lower ATR is accompanied by a change in trend, as it marks an exhaustion of currrent trend. The current ATR(14) is 23.

EOD Chart of Reliance:

Trade Strategy for RIL: A break of 1059 on EOD could be used to Short with a Stop loss of 1105 (earlier was wrong). This shall be an EOD based strategy. Upside potential is limited for Reliance, however, a break above today's high of 1081 shall be bullish, but i expect a target of only 1100 odd on RIL which shall be converging point for trendline joining (i) and (iii). Also, wave (iv) of wave 1 down is at 1100 which is rather huge resistance for upside move.

Refer Disclaimer in previous post...

Nifty, RIL, SBI: Commentary dated 24th may 2010

Nifty Update:
I hate changing counts, but it seems, the 5200 aim is goin to fall short, and possibly wave 5 of wave 1 can be an extension down. Wave 3 down was exactly 1.618x of wave 1. I forgot one rule of wave, "either of motive wave can be an extension. In case of extension, i am expecting wave 5 to be 2.618x of 1 - with target of approx 4600, for this the sell-off has to a be fast. Lets see, sub 4850, i expect the sell off to be fast, for now, I am not able to post target based on 60 min chart. Wave 5 can reach anywhere between 4800 to 4600. Why i am not able to sure, is because of attached SBI and RIL chart are more bearish and possible can be entering wave 3, which shall be very bearish for the market.
Following are Nifty, RIL and SBIN Charts.

Nifty:

RIL

SBIN

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Reliance Industries Limited (RIL): Elliott Wave Update

RELIANCE:

For now, I am presumming reliance has made a Primary degree top in Apr 2010, and now reliance is on the verge of completing wave 2 top. I have marked the down move from Apr 2010 to 7th may 2010 as impulsive 5 wave down. The 1090 level was 61.8% retracement zone for the entire wave 1 down from 1150 to 976. An action of wave 3 down could pose a target of Rs. 927 then Rs. 823. Following are two charts of Reliance.



Refer chart:

 RIL: Close up count:

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

RIL: Once again, HnS or Falling Wedge

RIL is making a HnS and a Falling Wedge.
Refer chart for comments:
Corrections on Chart time frame, its 10 min chart, with moving average negative crossover.
HnS  in place and Falling  Wedge

: These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students

Will we kick of (iii) of 1 tomo?? and view on RIL, Airtel, Relcap, ABB, SBIN

Nifty is getting stiff resistance at 4930. As mentioned in previous post, inabilitty to cross 4930 could lead nifty to start of wave (iii) of Wave 1. Plus, the whole world was shouting of a nifty target of 5100 taking into account a Inverse Head & Shoulder, which was never formed. That lead to bullish sentiment among many Technical Analyst and TV Analyst as usual are jumping of their feet or couch to be Bullish as ever. Anyhow, thats what they are paid for.

Now, coming to nifty, see the 30 minute chart of nifty, and yes an Inv HnS is still there, however, as mentioned in first para, there has been too much of propaganda of the same. As a result, i would consider that as such markets moving higher may be difficult.  Having said that, seems that, what i want most is about to be granted.

On my preferred scenario, i expect Nifty to crack and kick off wave (iii) of Wave 1. (30 min chart)

So, that means, what we are going to see is a failure. I have learnt one thing in chart trading, TRADE FAILURES. Why !!! because failure is mass rejection, so then mass everyone will go against their right and you will be on the right side of trade. So, for wave 3 to kick start, a failure of currently widely recognized Inverted HnS would be be a treat.

So, moving away from my imaginations and putting credible stuff for failure, i now propose Reliance Industries chart. The following is 30 min chart of RIL, again it is showing same colors as Nifty, more tilted to downside than upside. Reliance holds the key for Nifty & Sensex and in turn the broader market. There is a proper and good Head and Shoulder in RIL with a target of Rs. 926 with neckline at 982, providing a Rs. 56 downside based on Intraday charts. However, such move downward, trigger wave 3 for Reliance.

Next on Stop is BhartiArtl: Boy oh Boy, this fundamental crap story of Bharti i keep reading everywhere is amazing. Well there is giant Head n Shouler and the sub 270, this stock is turkey. This stock was turkey for long time, and i am not invested in it. I got out long time ago, anyhow thats not the issue here. Sub 275, i reckon target of 107 on Bharti Artl. One of strong support for Bharti is 250 - 240 zone.

Now, one more stock i had posted in my previous post Stock Status: Relcapital among other, where i had mentioned about a flag structure. Now Reliance Capital is a very important stock, representing first Anil Ambani, Mutual Fund Industry meaning direct dealing in stock market, Insurances and an entire gamut of Financial services. So movement of relcapital is very important. This pic was posted in previous post. Flag There is a proper flag breakdown, with target of Rs. 657 is sight.
Updated Relcapital chart below:

One more Heavy Industries giant is about to break down. I am seeing a completion of wave 2 and possible Wolfe wave with target of Rs. 600, and current price of stock been Rs. 807. Refer wave count below:

I saved the best for last, but i since i donot like to blow my own trumpet, i would say pls see the following post My Musings with Bank Stocks (especially look at SBIN Charts) posted in Dec, where believed that SBIN has done what was necessary from it and is headed for down journey. Since that price of Rs. 2100, SBIN is currently Rs. 1900 (and please i am not starting subscription crap based on the blog). So relax if i blow my trumpet a bit :) Anyhow, now attaching current chart of SBIN stock is process of Pennant / Flag  / Triangle Breakdown.

In that post i did say there are two major reasons i was bearish on SBIN, firstly the gaint Double Top and secondly a flat wave structure. For a follower of EWT, in a Flat structure wave a = wave b = wave c, and wave c can also reach 1.618 of wave a. But assuming a normal flat, i was assuming target of around Rs. 1000. Anyways, that the interpretation of Flat structure.

So let me know, how u like this post and other previous post

Disclaimer: These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Stock Status: Relcapital, Reliance, NTPC

 Relcapital: Flag Breakdown

 NTPC: Major Support gone for now.. 200

 Reliance:

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students

Polar Bears are Back with Bang.. This is the end!!!! Nifty, RIL Flag.

Missed me.. hehe..

Picture Source: Wikipedia

Well hello stranger did u miss me. I am Polar Bear. I am generally found at Arctic Circle (TOP !!!!) Well,  so much for the rally. I have a very bearish count, but i prefer to have it in wraps.

My post is coming after 250+ point fall in Dow Jones and all blogs got their asses wipped. All the bear blog we saying SPX and DJIA will rise a lot, but it jus hit them right in face. Kenny was rather spot on, cause he said that the Wave 2 requires 3 waves, and those are over. If we do have X then we may move up, but todays Dow and SPX price action was start of wave 3 in many aspects.

Coming back to India: I have a simple parameters of moving averages:
1. 89 SMA
2. 144 SMA
If u r below then gone, if above then rock on.

Look at what is happening everywhere, hyper bullishness. Thats good no problem, but the Polar Bears are here and after a long Hibernation, so u got a chance to catch a train.

Today was flag day. I am attaching below Nifty Chart and Reliance Chart. Refer them, see the clear Flag.

Major Trendline was broken. with fall below 55 EMA and 89 SMA. I did think, market would retrace to these SMAs and EMAs; but looks like that is not the case. The markets are falling. Close an 4800 should trigger a Fall Break Down. Which could take Nifty to 4492 zone, the 3rd Nov low zone. This was first serious fall based on FAKE Dubai shit news. This time things will be different, cause, u have no news now. The only new is POLAR BEARS are back.

Reliance Industries Limited:
RIL today already has broken the flag. It can act as FLAG as well as CUP n HANDLE. I am bit skeptical putting my count on Reliance, but based on the count, the target of RIL is Rs. 700.

On my Twitter account i am shouting from 1138 on Reliance to be Shorted :)
Well, i can say, i am getting better. Lets hope that continues 

Refer my post on Banks in Dec 2009, where had called The Top for banks. I am bored of giving the link, maybe tomo will repost an update. Refer my Post on CNXIT, Infy etc IT companies, where i said that it is the top or maybe Wave e is pending, well wave e came and they crashed. I was bit wrong with metals, but all i can say, they are totally gone.

I would be posting a Commodities Post, where, every i will put some charts.

Disclaimer: I am Mega Polar Bear.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students

RELIANCE: Follow on today's Price action

Yesterday i said, on short term basis, a bounce cannot be ruled out on Reliance, i guess today was the day RIL Analysis. The stock had fallen sharply.

Attaching intraday chart, showing Reliance Channel movement.

Pivot Points for RIL

Levels	Monthly	Weekly
R2	1237.69	1111.22
R1	1150.59	1059.43
P	1025.86	1032.2
S1	938.76	980.43
S2	814.03	953.22

Watch these levels for support and resistance. Weekly and monthly are stretched, daily would provide good supports for now..

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students

Reliance Industries Limited

Attaching here is Reliance Industries Chart

Possible short term bounce, nothin on Hourly charts. But on Daily Charts, stock is poised for downside. I would not rule out a short term bounce, but stock can reach to 765 zone.

Attaching Wave count based chart.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students