Commodities & Currencies Post: 7 Mar 2011

Here we go:

AUDUSD
EURO
GOLD
SILVER
COPPER

All notes on charts:

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Indian Metal Stocks: Nalco, Hindalco, Ster, Sesa, SAIL

NALCO:
Short Term: Possible Cup and Handle - Bullish possible post breakout above 408.

Current Price: 401.85
Stop Loss: 396
Target 426

Medium Term: Flag breakdown
Action: Short
Stop Loss: 427 level
Target: 300

Chart:

HINDALCO:
Rs. 185 is invalidation point for this wave count. break above 185 can take tha share to 200+ level.
Based on my preferred count. we are looking at completing wave 2 for Hindalco. Break of rising trendline (TL-1) shall be bearish for stock. In that case, stock shall be intermediate wave 3. But, i am keeping targets on hold, until the TL-1 is broken/ There is good evening star on Hindalco, marked in YELLOW BOX, this is bearish structure.

Chart:

Sterlite
Oh my my, I am seeing this stock after so many day. It has perfectly adhereed to wave count and now is moving to wave 5 down. The immediate target for STER is 140. The medium term target for wave 5 is approx 120. This old chart of Ster, which I had posted in Apr 2010, when i had called for wave 2 top for Ster and well this has been the case till now. Stock has now completed wave 3 and wave 4 and headed for wave 5.

 SAIL:
A similar story on sail. Same day I had called for wave 2 top on Sail. the price of sail then was 228, from that point in Apr 2010, SAIL had dropped to 185, which was end of wave 3. However, I cannot consider consolidation in May to Jul as wave 4, cause Wave 4 cannot enter into territory of wave 1. As of now, I am naming this formation as ABCXand ABC pending. There is a bearish Flag breakdown on SAIL with a target of Rs, 150. This is a good support zone for SAIL. A stoploss for this position (short) can be considered at Rs. 201. The current price of SAIL is 190.

SesaGoa:
Completion of 5 impulsive wave up to complete upmove in a Cycle wave. In fact, this stock is now actually starting its bearish waves, with start of Primary wave A. The bare minimum retracement for Sesa I am looking at is up to end of Primary wave 4, which would be in the range of Rs. 50 to 100. This is gonna turn heads as the stock is now at Rs 350, and anyone will say this guy is nuts and loves giving absurd target, but then that i view.

Long Term Sesa Goa:

 Shorter Term Chart:
The bracket marked in yellow is a Head and Shoulder strucuture, which has broken. The target of HnS is Rs. 287 with a Stop loss of sell of Rs. 340.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

A Currencies Post.: INRUSD and EURUSD

INR USD
Well INR got its new symbol and is ready to rock.
Longer Term chart of INRUSD


INRUSD has entered Primary degree wave 3 up with a target of approximate ~65 to USD. This is a very aggresive target so I have broken down the targets to Intermediate and Minor.

I am considering INRUSD to reach first 48.82 (cmp 46.82), with a Stop Loss of 45.70.

INRUSD Wave Count:

 HnS and Cup and handle

Refer chart for comments:

A larger Inverted HnS and Flag possible:

EUR USD
Some time around in May I had done a post on EURUSD titled "EURUSD Monthly HnS", showing a larger Monthly HnS. Well, time has passed and seems EURUSD is done with Neckline Testing and is headed south.

This is updated chart of EURUSD. Refer chart for comments.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Stocks more: Bomdyeing, Century, Cairn, Crompton

And the some stocks jus keep coming:

One more: Bomdyeing:
The stock came down from 630 to 474 from 13 Apr to 25 May. The is now turning, and is lookign poised for an upside burst. This stock can be rocket stock for upmoves. This stock is currently at fairly low ATR, have given a positive 5-13 EMA crossover, could be good long trade with SL of 500, while 1.5x atr suggests a SL of 485. Althought ATR is relatively low, the stop is not too low in absolute terms. However, seems like a good stock to enter. 480 is a good support for the stock and I would say low stop loss would not hurt.

Century Textile:
From one textile stock to other. This one is also sporting a nice Cup and Handle. The currnet price of stock is 467, and the cup and handle lip is at 460. The level 450 is good SL, it is also a the crossover zone where EMA 5-13 and SMA 20 had a crossover. The stock has closed today above EMA 34 and is backed by good volumes over last few days. The ATR is also lowest, can a less risky upside stock.

CAIRN India:
Nice Inverted Head and Shoulder on Cairn India. The stock has given a good positive EMA crossover (5-13-34), the bollinger bands have just now expanded towards bullish, today was a good Bullish Hammer price action and a dip below neckline was bought out completely.
Based on Inverted Head and Shoulder, the target for the stock works out to Rs. 340, vs the current price of 305. The EMA cross over was on 10 June at Rs. 297. This price can be good SL -somewhere in the range of 295 seems a good level. The monthly Pivot of stock is at 295, so this can be a good SL, and would be a good support for the stock.

Crompton Greaves:
Now, this is stock has given a fantastic Inverted head and shoulder with superb EMA Crossover. In fact, the stock has a given a good EMA 5-13-34 crossover and is abvoe its 50 and 89 SMA. Plus, a nice breakout with volumes. The current price of stock is 255. Based on inverted HnS, the target price of the stock works out to 290. A new high is comin for the stock. ATR is at 8, just about taking a turn, could expect this one to go high now. :)
I can say this can be my top pick in the days to come.

Now, I am tired and sleeping, goin by alphabetical order is stopping at C now. :)

There would be loads of more stocks, these sre just few.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Stocks: LT, Sugar Stocks, Praj Industries, BHEL

In continuation with my previous post on Nifty (bullish) with Cup and Handle picture on Nifty anda target of approx 5508, I am posting stocks which are givng breakout, but can rally further.

LT: Inverted HnS (giant)
Is this an inverted HnS or what !!!!

Target is 2000, cmp is 1724 and SL would be 1680.

Sugar Stocks:
Looks like somebody found a bottom.

Bajaj Hind: - Cup and Handle and EMA Crossover:

There is a cup and handle structure on Bajaj Hind with a target of 130. Sugar seems to be goin up and sugar stocks are something to hold. 

Renuka Sugar:

Renuka Breakout today. Potential target of 80 with SL of 60

Praj Industries:
This is a possible breakout candidate. The stock has a very low ATR of 2.86. The bollinger band has contracted. Today was a good doji - bullish one with increase in volumes and break above today's high of 80.70 could suggest a target of 88 on the stock considering a possible triangle structure. Plus, today there has been a basic EMA crossover of 5-13. Now, tomo a crossing 34 EMA at 81.42 (cmp 80.20) can be good trigger for the stock. One more important fact, I see is the fall from 5th may was marred with low volumes, very stable volumes, no spikes suggesting unusal selling.

EDIT: Addition:
BHEL
Alogn with bullish LT, there is a possible Cup and Handle in BHEL. The price of BHEL is 2400, the target is 2500 (rs. 100 up). The stock has done a cup-lip testing. Plus, ATR is stable. On 10 June, stock gave 5-13 EMA crossover, with breakout. Seems todays testing phase of cup lip of the stock is done.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Nifty Elliott Wave Commentary

Well, today's price action, totally took out my preferred Scenario 3 as posted in my yesterday's blog. However, today mid-market of Inverted HnS post  was timely to point an upward target of 5140. Now, it seems US indices are in wave 2 action.

There is massive cup and handle structure possible on Nifty, which itself has a possiblility to take Nifty to 5505.

The structure marked on the chart is huge Cup and Handle Formation, provided market goes above the lip of cup of 5140. Now, this shall be more important as on today;s candle all 3 important Fibo EMA (5,13,34) shall give a positive crossover - provided that tomo is good follow-up bullish candle.

Based the above conditions, then market can have a target of 5508 for now.

Now, readers would say, that I was massively bearish yesterday and today I am super bullish. Well, the case now is I see a Cup and Handle strucure in making. I am still with my preferred Bearish wave count, which shall hold until top made at 5390 is not breached. Plus, there are major hurdles at 5200 - 5300 marking resistances at each 100 point rise. In case of new high made, I would be prompted to considered


Nifty EOD Chart:

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

FTSE & DAX Market Update dt 24 Mar 2010

Refer FTSE and DAX Chart
FTSE: Wave 3 in process, possible Head and Shoulder (or Cup and Handle) bearish break down. Possbile targer for FTSE is 4257 while curreent price is 5062. This is further to previous analysis on FTSE & DAX .

FTSE Chart:

 DAX:

Further to previous analysis done on DAX  see wave3  in action in DAX with target of 5030 (current price of DAX 5829).

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Nifty Intrraday update: dt 29 Apr

Cup and handle on Nifty.
Lip of cup is 5240/
Sub 5240 SL: 5231 Target 5280

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

SAIL: Cup and Handle

SAIL:

Cup and Handle
CMP 236.. tgt 218 SL 242

Stock Ideas: Relcapital; Max India

I am combining two financial companies here: relcapital and max india. both have insurance as their business among other business and both are teasing major breakout levels.

Reliance Capital : CMP 917:

Stock on important crossroad
upside: Long with SL of 850
Target 1200-1300

short trade: Short now: with SL of 930, and reverse above 930 for target of 1200.
Refer commentary on chart..

Downside reverw below 850 target sub-700 levels

Max India: CMP: 221
The stock made a high of 235, however last 4 candle have been bearish candles. Today stock is up, however sustenance of the same needs to be seen. The stock is in short term bearish-ness however, keep an eye on this stock, there is massive Inverted Head and Shoulder.
Long term bull, short term pain. Close above 235, could make a mini-Inverted HnS with target of 235. 
Good support at 200, possible reversal level

Disclaimer: This is my personal view based on technical analysis. Take ur own call, this is not a financial advisory, always use stop loss.

Break Out Stocks: GUJNRECOKE and TATASTEEL

TataSteel:
Cup and Handle Breakout
CMP; 604
SL: 553
Price Target: 738

Guj NRE Coke:
Gives Break out of Inverted HnS

Price Target 95
CMP: 73.75
SL: 64

The stock has broken out of Weekly pivots (R2: 72.43), and immediate resistance at 75.10 been monthly R1.

Chart:

PIVOTS:

Disclaimer: These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students

Bhartiartl: Short Trade

 Bhartiartl:
On Hourly charts, today bharti artl has given a break down at Rs. 314 forming an Inverted Cup and Handle with Cup Lip at 314. I expect the stock to trade down with stop loss above the cup at a 321. Based on the distance from the Cup top to lip, the stock seems to be poised for downside of approximate 284 with possible support and resistances marked on the chart.

On EOD basis, the stock has closed below 50 SMA and is currently below all its leading moving averages. As such, it can be said that the rise from Dec start was merely an upward break after selling pressure, the stock major support at 280 to 270 zone.

A Close below that could propel a massive Head and Shoulder formation. However, there are various checks and balances for the completion of formation. But for now on EOD basis watch 280 to 275 zone. Based on intraday data analysis, the stock reaching 284 zone is highly probable.

Based on Swing indicator, the stock has today broken 5 to 9 days swing. A close below 309.05, could lead to a 10 days swing break.

Verdict: Short
Current trailing SL 313
The black channel on Hourly chart hold for downtrend, break above that could also lead to change in position.

Following are basic Support and Resistance levels to be watched for Bharti for current week and current month.

Pivots	Monthly	Weekly
S2	246.00	302.75
S1	273.00	310.00
Pivot	299.50	322.45
R1	326.00	329.70
R2	352.50	342.15

 S: denotes Support, R denotes Resistance

Disclaimer: These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students

NIFTY: Short Term Analysis

 Nifty Intraday:

Nifty EOD:

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students