Friday, August 27, 2010

Nifty: 27 Aug Intraday Update

Alternate Count: A break of Neckline at 5490, shall suggest a target of 5520 approx. With a possibel HnS and a retracement of about 80% for wave 2.

Preferred: Assuming wave 2 is complete at 5490 which retraced upto (iv) of 5 (38.2% retrace). Under that scenario we are wave of 1 of (3) down, with a target of 5346




These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Indian Metal Stocks: Nalco, Hindalco, Ster, Sesa, SAIL

NALCO:
Short Term: Possible Cup and Handle - Bullish possible post breakout above 408.

Current Price: 401.85
Stop Loss: 396
Target 426

Medium Term: Flag breakdown
Action: Short
Stop Loss: 427 level
Target: 300

Chart:



HINDALCO:
Rs. 185 is invalidation point for this wave count. break above 185 can take tha share to 200+ level.
Based on my preferred count. we are looking at completing wave 2 for Hindalco. Break of rising trendline (TL-1) shall be bearish for stock. In that case, stock shall be intermediate wave 3. But, i am keeping targets on hold, until the TL-1 is broken/ There is good evening star on Hindalco, marked in YELLOW BOX, this is bearish structure.

Chart:

Sterlite
Oh my my, I am seeing this stock after so many day. It has perfectly adhereed to wave count and now is moving to wave 5 down. The immediate target for STER is 140. The medium term target for wave 5 is approx 120. This old chart of Ster, which I had posted in Apr 2010, when i had called for wave 2 top for Ster and well this has been the case till now. Stock has now completed wave 3 and wave 4 and headed for wave 5.


 SAIL:
A similar story on sail. Same day I had called for wave 2 top on Sail. the price of sail then was 228, from that point in Apr 2010, SAIL had dropped to 185, which was end of wave 3. However, I cannot consider consolidation in May to Jul as wave 4, cause Wave 4 cannot enter into territory of wave 1. As of now, I am naming this formation as ABCXand ABC pending. There is a bearish Flag breakdown on SAIL with a target of Rs, 150. This is a good support zone for SAIL. A stoploss for this position (short) can be considered at Rs. 201. The current price of SAIL is 190.


SesaGoa:
Completion of 5 impulsive wave up to complete upmove in a Cycle wave. In fact, this stock is now actually starting its bearish waves, with start of Primary wave A. The bare minimum retracement for Sesa I am looking at is up to end of Primary wave 4, which would be in the range of Rs. 50 to 100. This is gonna turn heads as the stock is now at Rs 350, and anyone will say this guy is nuts and loves giving absurd target, but then that i view.

Long Term Sesa Goa:



 Shorter Term Chart:
The bracket marked in yellow is a Head and Shoulder strucuture, which has broken. The target of HnS is Rs. 287 with a Stop loss of sell of Rs. 340.





These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

INRUSD: Alternate Scenario

This can be a possible triangle, with the white line on top been a strong resistance line. The break of this line shall be good precursor to targets given in my previous Post. 
A break of triangle on downside shall give INRUSD a target of 43.75. Breakdown can be possible on breaking levels of 45.65 and 45.05. 




These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

A Currencies Post.: INRUSD and EURUSD

INR USD
Well INR got its new symbol and is ready to rock.
Longer Term chart of INRUSD


INRUSD has entered Primary degree wave 3 up with a target of approximate ~65 to USD. This is a very aggresive target so I have broken down the targets to Intermediate and Minor.

I am considering INRUSD to reach first 48.82 (cmp 46.82), with a Stop Loss of 45.70.

INRUSD Wave Count:

 HnS and Cup and handle

Refer chart for comments:

A larger Inverted HnS and Flag possible:


EUR USD
Some time around in May I had done a post on EURUSD titled "EURUSD Monthly HnS", showing a larger Monthly HnS. Well, time has passed and seems EURUSD is done with Neckline Testing and is headed south.

This is updated chart of EURUSD. Refer chart for comments.





These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Friday, August 20, 2010

DAX

Update: DAX:
As we speak DAX has broken important trendline.

The following chart is detailed analysis of DAX (German Index)


 Detailed:
There is proper triangle breakdown and Head and Shoulder for DAX. and elliott wave count seems to be in place.




These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students
This is not a Nifty Trading Post, just an opinion post.

Market keeps extending its gain. In my previous I had referred this to be the top; but then had not ruled out a possibility of Nifty hitting 5500, which was over done today, with Nifty touching 5533. This is good though, but it seems, nifty has reached the upper trading bands. There is divergence of Indian market with the global markets. The global markets are running downtrend. In fact today US market which yesterday opened -150 points in DOW, closed down at same levels. If 1069 is broken on S&P500, then it could be headed in wave 3 down. If this level is held, we can even see 1106 on S&P (current S&P 500 1077). The near price confirmation for S&P is a break of 1069. Today US market may make low of wave (i) of wave 3 down. The S&P futures have already broken 1069, which as i write are currently at 1067. This can be considerably bearish for the global market. The European markets are as well bleeding, I had mentioned in previous post that FTSE,has started wave 3 down, which was forged yesterday. (the recent chart is given below).

On the other hand, I see Indian market making new tops. But, the move as even mentioned in previous post is an Ending Daigonal structure. I see this upmove to be also an Ending Daigonal within an Ending Daigonal move. The last leg Z is Ending Daigonal and the current upmove of Wave e is also an Ending Daigonal.

Ending Daigonal generally offshot the trading range, which is quiet possible. The current price of Nifty is 5527. The break of (ii) - (iv) line joining 6th Jul low of 5233 and 12 Aug low of 5363 shall be a confirmation for a top to be in place.

Coming to the topping views. As, I mentioned in previous paragraphs, India is divergent vs the global scenario. I must admit, I am big bull long term on India, and concur to 100000 target of Sensex, which was given by Elliott Wave International in around Apr 2009. But, I am for now in present tense more bearish, with this kind of Ending Daigonal structure in place.

I have mentioned a possible of 5600 above which is the monthly R2 Pivot point. Today was an indecisive on Indian market. Reliance is looking ready for bottoming out, probably. I am not much confident on that though. Today was an indecisive day. Reliance is only stock that may lead a rally, as of now, cause, it has a wave ii pending. This move can make a scenario for a upside move on Nifty, which can take nifty to 5600.

Following detailed chart of Nifty. As mentioned earlier, this looks as top, and break of (ii) - (iv) line shall give a confirmation.




Global Indices:

This was my previous FTSE count check chart here. FTSE has broken down an infact, as i write is down 25 points. It is now 5187 after hitting low of 5160.


The path is not time-wise, its just broadly the levels.

S&P has made a nice Head and Shoulder pattern.. The preferred scenario is that the HnS pattern works and and wave iii of 3 and the HnS target can take SnP 500 to 1010 level. Under alternate scenario (refer in red color), wherein the SnP 500 can in wave ii Flat can have a target of 1100.

Refer SnP 500 chart:


Refer next post for stock charts, i shall cover some stocks and indices in next post, which shal be based on weekly chart.



These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Thursday, August 12, 2010

Stock Post: Stocks beginning with A

Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis of Stocks - Aban, ACC, Adani, Albk, Andhrabank, APIL and Ashokley


ABAN:
major trendline break here, ABAN can be initiated SHORT with SL of 900. This is a wedge breakdown with the targets as the starting point of wedge. The target for ABAN shall be testing the lows at Rs. 630. The bull candle on 28 Jul shall be support for ABAN at 816. Clearing 816 and 800 shall be major bearish for ABAN, where it can start its move to Rs. 630.



ACC:
Target zone for fall. between 700 to 675. Seems wave ii of wave 3 is complete. Wave, a rather fierce downside can resume for ACC



Adani:
Currently Adani is at 612.75, at 2x ATR SL works out to 640. I expect this to be a formidable top for Adani and shorters may enter with the SL (in consonance with their capital). Longers can get out of this stock.



ALBK:
Nice TOP, risky short


Andhrabank:
One more overgrown PSU bank stock




APIL
61.8% retracement of wave B, ready for Wave C down. Wave A down was 1150 to 185, approx 83% correction. Expect wave C to see 83% correction\, with target of 126 on APIL




Ashok Leyland: Running Flat






These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

The Long Term Picture: Nifty, Dow Jones, FTSE

We I was missing for a long time, my previous went off the window. But, Reliance totally rocked, in fact, only reliance is falling while, nifty is rising. Although can reach 5500, on a long term,  I am looking at this as a rather formidable wave B top.

Wave Counts of Nifty:
Preferred:

 Alternate:

 World Indices:
Dow Jones: Looks particularly weak and is ready for wave 3 down.


 FTSE: Copy cat of Dow Jones



These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students