The Currency Post: Vol. 1: EURUSD Outlook

This a weekly chart with a long term outlook for EUR USD

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Silver: Giant Head & Shoulder

Here we go with Silver and its huge Giant Head & Shoulder.

Of this baby comes off, we shall be on the moon with silver. I will post a detailed chart later, but this how things look.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

TCS & POLARIS: Elliott Wave Update

Refer chart for comments on TCS & POLARIS

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

LT Long Term

 Here is a look at LT.

I am not pretty confident, but I think this can work..

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

NSE 500: A good case for Top..

This post is primarily bearish and gives a possible bullish case well. That does not mean, that I am confused, but rather keeping open all price actions. The NSE 500 is a broader index with 500 shares of traded on index, this can be a good measure of market.

The high made in Index in Jan 2010 did not get voilated, in fact from that point it raced down with market. This i would like to put in as wave 1. The subsequent upmove to Apr 2010 levels was wave 2.

As of now, i believe the broader market has topped out.

The above chart is major bearish, in fact suggesting formation of Primary wave B / wave 2 top, in Jan 2010 at 4500 level. Currently, the index is at 4256, a break below 4000, can take the index to 3500.

In fact under the current bearish preferred wave count, and we having completed wave 2 at 4449 (in blue font), we are in wave 3. The target of this wave would be takin 1.618x of wave 1 be 3621 level on this index. Below 4000, there shall be a cup and handle formation with distance to be covered been 500 points down from 4000, making it target zone of 3500. This is the broader index, and major correction shall creep in stocks.

A close look at the chart, wil give a rather clear picture:
The targets are posted on chart:

 Bullish Case:

A move above 4500 shall be extremely bullish, pushing the index to 5000 levels. There shall be a cup and handle, and the currently labeled wave 2 shall be the lip of cup.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

NSEIT: A Top in Place or just a little bit more before the tumble..

NSEIT:
NSE IT: has had a stellar rally from the bottom made in Mar 2009 to current 5923. Since the rally has been parallel the structure has been a corrective type rather than an implusive one. The index has made a top in y2K rally, so i am considering all charts as a corrective pattern rather than impulsive one.

Wave Strucuture: The Index is in WXYXZ, where we are in process of making a Final Z Top, thus making IT index ready for a PLUNGE. Max i think on the upside we may as well see 6100 to 6200 zone, however that would occur, where the Index decides to make an Ending Daigonal for Wave Z. Currently, the wave Z seems to be a ZigZag formation ending with Three Black Soldiers.

Daily Chart Wave Count Comment:
Ideally, a top would be good with Infy results coming out makin it a Blow-Off top wave "e", been a proper Ending Daigonal for wave "Z" Top. This is a typical Triple Combination with:

(1) W been a Zig Zag,

(2) wave Y exhaustion  with another double combination,
   1) with Wave "w" zigzag,
   2) "x" small triangle,
   3) wave "y" been a triangle "abcde". As we know about triangles, "triangles generally appear in wave prior to last actionary wave. As such, it has occured in wave "y" of wave Y.

Now, we are in last leg of upside move for this Index (all IT shares). Currently, the rising X'-b line has been breaches; and on daily charts we see a "Three Black Soldiers" formation. This is proper bearish structure and can suggests a top in place. Plus, on weekly charts, the Insehas made an "Evening Star" candle pattern with surging Volumes.

The Fall from Jan 2008 Wave Count on IT Index:

The rise from Mart 2009 Lows Detailed wave Count:

Weekly Chart: If we look at Weekly chart, there is a Double Top structure, based on which one can be short on Index with Stop Loss of 6000 and target of 3900 (~50% of height from Mar 09 Low of 1992 to Jan 2010 high of 5923). The weekly charts suggest a medium term top in place.

Swing Commentary: Based on Swing Break status (employed by the Turtle Traders and promoted in india by KPL of vfmdirect.co.in). I have analyzed the weekly swing status of NSEIT and observed that the rally was so strong that the lowest low the stock ever maintained was 3 weeks. Meaning since the uptrend has started, the Index has not even fallen to breach the lowest low made in preceding low.
"3 Week Swing Status": The Rally in NSEIT has been so strong, that on weekly charts, the stock had given a Three Week Swing Buy on week ended 20th Mar 2009 at close of 2229.35 from where it has rallied to 5923. As of now, it has not given a sell on 3-Week Swing Basis, which stands at this week's low of 5599.30.

"2 Week Swing Status": Based on two weeks swing, the Index has given a Sell signal. Previously, the stock. Check Chart 3 for Swing Break on Weekly basis.

Future scenarios:
I would not be surprised if there is a short term bounce in place. As of now, if we donot bounce back, I think we have a top that can take the IT Index to at least 4200 mark. Under a bullish scenario, a one more blow off peak cannot be ruled out, targetting 6100 zone. however, i reckon the index has lost steam, and that will only be wave "e" of final "Z" Top.

Verdict: Short with SL of 6000. The stop loss is around 400 points up. So be careful there could be an bounce day and adequately position yourself. On the upside i think 6000 to 6200 is max zone.