Nifty, RIL, SBI: Commentary dated 24th may 2010

Nifty Update:
I hate changing counts, but it seems, the 5200 aim is goin to fall short, and possibly wave 5 of wave 1 can be an extension down. Wave 3 down was exactly 1.618x of wave 1. I forgot one rule of wave, "either of motive wave can be an extension. In case of extension, i am expecting wave 5 to be 2.618x of 1 - with target of approx 4600, for this the sell-off has to a be fast. Lets see, sub 4850, i expect the sell off to be fast, for now, I am not able to post target based on 60 min chart. Wave 5 can reach anywhere between 4800 to 4600. Why i am not able to sure, is because of attached SBI and RIL chart are more bearish and possible can be entering wave 3, which shall be very bearish for the market.
Following are Nifty, RIL and SBIN Charts.

Nifty:

RIL

SBIN

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

State Bank of India: Elliott Wave Update

SBIN, seems to have completed wave 2 top at 2347. Open for wave 3 down, with target for 1405. REcall in Dec 09, i had posted a charts of banks calling top. The top posted for SBIN then, has not been breached. In fact, based on that post, i reckon a target of Rs. 1000 for SBIN. 

Following is the chart, i had posted then:

Link to the image

Now, a closer scrutiny of the chart above suggests the first fall frm Jan 2007 been named as W-X-Y (3 down), rise again from bottom named as A-B-C (3 wave up),where the up wave retraced the entire down move. Now making first down move as A, then the top as B on primary degree. For now, based on the top, we are headed for 5 wave down to complete wave C, which can be equal to wave A or 1.618 of wave A. At equal to wave A, would put a target of Rs. 950 - Rs. 1000 on SBIN.

Current Scenario: Currently i am marking the top as at 2347 as wave 2 end, with target of wave 3 been Rs. 1405.


Refer current chart:

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

My Musings with Bank Stocks: Calling the TOP !!!

I have this specific love / hate relationship with Banks. Actually i have been once wrong with banks, so i have continual efforts to be perfect in bank. So here I am presenting my analysis on Banks.

Synopsys: I believe banks are poised for short and medium term correction. I have mega bearish on SBIN the main bellwether of banks and major contributor to Bank Nifty. I believe SBIN is in FLAT structure (Elliott Wave Theory) and have complete Wave A:3-Down (from 2007 to Mar 2009) and  Wave B:3-Up (from Mar 09 to Dec 10) and is poised for Wave C:5 Down and possibly can reach lows of 1000. The Current price is 2145. Similarly i believe Bank Nifty shall follow suit.

ALL COMMENTS POSTED ON CHARTS


Chart attached : Bank Nifty, State Bank of India, HDFC Bank, IDBI, ICICI Bank, Oriental Bank

State Bank of India: EOD Long Term Chart

 SBIN Intraday Hourly Chart:

 Bank Nifty

 HDFC Bank

 

IDBI

Oreintal Bank

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. Take you own trading decisions. These my views based on my studies. Do your own study and consult your own advisor. Use stop loss or be screwed. We are all students