Friday, May 7, 2010

Nifty next and update on old charts of Nifty, Copper and Crude

Now,  where do i start this post from. Since, i have restarted this blog again from 16 Apr 2010 i have been rather bearish over the market. I had posted two charts then one Weekly and one Daily.
The weekly chart had suggested a major trendline break, and i have posted then that market "The weekly charts suggests a major downside possible. On weekly charts, based on EW, is see a pattern likely resembling Ending Daigonal (ED) on verge of completion. Yes, ED wave e can overshoot the trendline, so, i would not be surprise for a high of 5500 on NF (80% retracement). But, having said that, major downsides are open for now."
 Accordinly from from 5263, the then weekly close Nifty has moved to 5087 now, maintaining the break to the trendline.

There still exists an Ending Daigonal / Wolfe Wave sort of structure on Nifty. In fact, the wave count is rather more apparent more. I had marked at the top wave e to end at 5400 levels, although leaving a room for more highs, but having the primary outlook as bearish. This has rather played out well.

Nifty has moved down significantly lower from those levels. The then high at approx 5400, and currently Nifty having closed at 5087 (low 5025). The fall out has been rapid in past few days.

In the post dated 30 Apr 2010, had put a 30 min wave count chart on Nifty. The wave count i believe has been pretty tight and right. I am now adding the updated wave count.

Nifty is poised for a downside. In fact, the support seems to be there at 4960 (200 days SMA, and old Cup and Handle target - i had not posted this cup and handle chart).

Outlook on EOD:
Nifty tomo shall be in wave (v) of wave 3 of wave major wave 1. For now, downside targets are open, and am not putting a number to anything for now.
The wave 3 has not yet ended. Infact, wave 3 target at 1.618 of wave 1 (5400 - 5162) works out to 4962, while 2.618x of wave 1 works out to 4742 and 2x wave 1 works out to 4900. These can be bounce areas. Apparently, as stated above, the 200 days moving average is at 4960. This is an important level. Already we are below, all important averages, 55 EMA, 89 SMA, 50 SMA, 100 SMA on daily charts.

Crude Oil:
In the post dated 21 Apr 2010,  i had posted the following chart of crude oil:

With price targets as: I am under the impression that the following prices shall be target level for the crude oil:
Target 1: $ 70 : Target 2: $65 : Target 3: $58

 Currently crude oil is at $76.67, sitting on its 200 days moving average. It seems, the price of $70 is not far away, I am thinking is the Top for crude oil. But, there is no point in been overconfident. In fact the next charts, weekly and daily shows major support line for crude. The above targets continue to hold.

The following is current crude oil chart:
The 200 day SMA of crude is 76.67, and crude is sitting right on top of it.

The weekly chart of Crude:

Crude oil has closed below its 200 week moving average, which is at $77.06 This shal be a big factor for crude. However, tomorrow close would give a better picture, as the week is yet to end.

Copper: and Metal Stocks:

Will be adding in next post, with reference to blog update on commodities done on 18 Apr 2010.

Following was the chart of copper then, when had said, that below $340, copper shall have major weakness.

Current Copper chart: As of now, copper is at $320, moving down from then price of copper of $350. This fall has been rapid.Copper now has support at 200 days moving average at 311.99. This place could stall the down move for copper.

Will post an update on metal stocks tht had posted in previous post.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

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