Nifty Valuations

Nifty Valuation based on PE.. PE Bands.. Overvalued based on FY11e PE.

The other two charts are based on trailing 12months PE multiple from NSE site itself.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Nifty . Bank Nifty

Nifty . Bank Nifty

Nifty Preferred and Alternate Counts

Bank Nifty

Stocks Review

Refer table picture

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Nifty Trailing 12M PE

This chart should suffice..

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Vivekoutlook: A New Look (Work in Progress)

Well, I have been away for a long time. Lot to do with my new job and stuff. And moving back to India (was out of India) for some time, and now back.

Well, thats about me giving excuses for not been posting on the blog, but honestly that was the case. There was loads of things happening and I regreted not posting on the blog, because not posting affects my consistency. I am thinking of revamping the blog.

Also, I must admit, I have been bearish on the blog with Bullish scenario been a Alternate one. But, now, it is all going to change. I am revamping the thought process.

Following are the changes I am planning:
a. Determining the trading capital
b. Setting up a trading / investment portfolio
c. Having adequate stop loss in line with the capital
d. Separate portfolio based strategy for international posts I make (metals / forex / international indices)
e. Structured Labels
f. Add some statistical analysis (study of moving averages, rainbow averages, a/d ratio. FII / DII inflow, turnover analysis, derivatives analysis - open interest) among others.
g. Add fundamental analysis (but that takes time, building models, forecasting, analyzing sector)


Following technical analysis tools shall be used in Analysis:
a. Elliott Wave Theory
b. EMA / SMA confluence
c. Fibonacci Supports Resistances
d. Oscillators and Indicators: ADX, MACD, RSI
e. Turtle Trading (ATR)


Now, that I have written so much, I shall start putting out stuff accordingly.


These are few additions. And, this is the blog / site; neither any tall claims about subscription etc are gonna be made here. This is just site, where I wish to publish my views. I may sometimes be wrong; while I will try be right the most of the times. 

One friend of mine (Mayur) said that if u r good at trading and stuff and confident on your calls, why u need subscriptions and other peoples money, use your money and achieve a compounded growth. Some will not agree, but I do agree with him.



These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Nifty: 27 Aug Intraday Update

Alternate Count: A break of Neckline at 5490, shall suggest a target of 5520 approx. With a possibel HnS and a retracement of about 80% for wave 2.

Preferred: Assuming wave 2 is complete at 5490 which retraced upto (iv) of 5 (38.2% retrace). Under that scenario we are wave of 1 of (3) down, with a target of 5346

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Indian Metal Stocks: Nalco, Hindalco, Ster, Sesa, SAIL

NALCO:
Short Term: Possible Cup and Handle - Bullish possible post breakout above 408.

Current Price: 401.85
Stop Loss: 396
Target 426

Medium Term: Flag breakdown
Action: Short
Stop Loss: 427 level
Target: 300

Chart:

HINDALCO:
Rs. 185 is invalidation point for this wave count. break above 185 can take tha share to 200+ level.
Based on my preferred count. we are looking at completing wave 2 for Hindalco. Break of rising trendline (TL-1) shall be bearish for stock. In that case, stock shall be intermediate wave 3. But, i am keeping targets on hold, until the TL-1 is broken/ There is good evening star on Hindalco, marked in YELLOW BOX, this is bearish structure.

Chart:

Sterlite
Oh my my, I am seeing this stock after so many day. It has perfectly adhereed to wave count and now is moving to wave 5 down. The immediate target for STER is 140. The medium term target for wave 5 is approx 120. This old chart of Ster, which I had posted in Apr 2010, when i had called for wave 2 top for Ster and well this has been the case till now. Stock has now completed wave 3 and wave 4 and headed for wave 5.

 SAIL:
A similar story on sail. Same day I had called for wave 2 top on Sail. the price of sail then was 228, from that point in Apr 2010, SAIL had dropped to 185, which was end of wave 3. However, I cannot consider consolidation in May to Jul as wave 4, cause Wave 4 cannot enter into territory of wave 1. As of now, I am naming this formation as ABCXand ABC pending. There is a bearish Flag breakdown on SAIL with a target of Rs, 150. This is a good support zone for SAIL. A stoploss for this position (short) can be considered at Rs. 201. The current price of SAIL is 190.

SesaGoa:
Completion of 5 impulsive wave up to complete upmove in a Cycle wave. In fact, this stock is now actually starting its bearish waves, with start of Primary wave A. The bare minimum retracement for Sesa I am looking at is up to end of Primary wave 4, which would be in the range of Rs. 50 to 100. This is gonna turn heads as the stock is now at Rs 350, and anyone will say this guy is nuts and loves giving absurd target, but then that i view.

Long Term Sesa Goa:

 Shorter Term Chart:
The bracket marked in yellow is a Head and Shoulder strucuture, which has broken. The target of HnS is Rs. 287 with a Stop loss of sell of Rs. 340.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

INRUSD: Alternate Scenario

This can be a possible triangle, with the white line on top been a strong resistance line. The break of this line shall be good precursor to targets given in my previous Post. 
A break of triangle on downside shall give INRUSD a target of 43.75. Breakdown can be possible on breaking levels of 45.65 and 45.05. 

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

A Currencies Post.: INRUSD and EURUSD

INR USD
Well INR got its new symbol and is ready to rock.
Longer Term chart of INRUSD


INRUSD has entered Primary degree wave 3 up with a target of approximate ~65 to USD. This is a very aggresive target so I have broken down the targets to Intermediate and Minor.

I am considering INRUSD to reach first 48.82 (cmp 46.82), with a Stop Loss of 45.70.

INRUSD Wave Count:

 HnS and Cup and handle

Refer chart for comments:

A larger Inverted HnS and Flag possible:

EUR USD
Some time around in May I had done a post on EURUSD titled "EURUSD Monthly HnS", showing a larger Monthly HnS. Well, time has passed and seems EURUSD is done with Neckline Testing and is headed south.

This is updated chart of EURUSD. Refer chart for comments.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

DAX

Update: DAX:
As we speak DAX has broken important trendline.

The following chart is detailed analysis of DAX (German Index)

 Detailed:
There is proper triangle breakdown and Head and Shoulder for DAX. and elliott wave count seems to be in place.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

This is not a Nifty Trading Post, just an opinion post.

Market keeps extending its gain. In my previous I had referred this to be the top; but then had not ruled out a possibility of Nifty hitting 5500, which was over done today, with Nifty touching 5533. This is good though, but it seems, nifty has reached the upper trading bands. There is divergence of Indian market with the global markets. The global markets are running downtrend. In fact today US market which yesterday opened -150 points in DOW, closed down at same levels. If 1069 is broken on S&P500, then it could be headed in wave 3 down. If this level is held, we can even see 1106 on S&P (current S&P 500 1077). The near price confirmation for S&P is a break of 1069. Today US market may make low of wave (i) of wave 3 down. The S&P futures have already broken 1069, which as i write are currently at 1067. This can be considerably bearish for the global market. The European markets are as well bleeding, I had mentioned in previous post that FTSE,has started wave 3 down, which was forged yesterday. (the recent chart is given below).

On the other hand, I see Indian market making new tops. But, the move as even mentioned in previous post is an Ending Daigonal structure. I see this upmove to be also an Ending Daigonal within an Ending Daigonal move. The last leg Z is Ending Daigonal and the current upmove of Wave e is also an Ending Daigonal.

Ending Daigonal generally offshot the trading range, which is quiet possible. The current price of Nifty is 5527. The break of (ii) - (iv) line joining 6th Jul low of 5233 and 12 Aug low of 5363 shall be a confirmation for a top to be in place.

Coming to the topping views. As, I mentioned in previous paragraphs, India is divergent vs the global scenario. I must admit, I am big bull long term on India, and concur to 100000 target of Sensex, which was given by Elliott Wave International in around Apr 2009. But, I am for now in present tense more bearish, with this kind of Ending Daigonal structure in place.

I have mentioned a possible of 5600 above which is the monthly R2 Pivot point. Today was an indecisive on Indian market. Reliance is looking ready for bottoming out, probably. I am not much confident on that though. Today was an indecisive day. Reliance is only stock that may lead a rally, as of now, cause, it has a wave ii pending. This move can make a scenario for a upside move on Nifty, which can take nifty to 5600.

Following detailed chart of Nifty. As mentioned earlier, this looks as top, and break of (ii) - (iv) line shall give a confirmation.

Global Indices:

This was my previous FTSE count check chart here. FTSE has broken down an infact, as i write is down 25 points. It is now 5187 after hitting low of 5160.

The path is not time-wise, its just broadly the levels.

S&P has made a nice Head and Shoulder pattern.. The preferred scenario is that the HnS pattern works and and wave iii of 3 and the HnS target can take SnP 500 to 1010 level. Under alternate scenario (refer in red color), wherein the SnP 500 can in wave ii Flat can have a target of 1100.

Refer SnP 500 chart:

Refer next post for stock charts, i shall cover some stocks and indices in next post, which shal be based on weekly chart.



These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Stock Post: Stocks beginning with A

Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis of Stocks - Aban, ACC, Adani, Albk, Andhrabank, APIL and Ashokley


ABAN:
major trendline break here, ABAN can be initiated SHORT with SL of 900. This is a wedge breakdown with the targets as the starting point of wedge. The target for ABAN shall be testing the lows at Rs. 630. The bull candle on 28 Jul shall be support for ABAN at 816. Clearing 816 and 800 shall be major bearish for ABAN, where it can start its move to Rs. 630.

ACC:
Target zone for fall. between 700 to 675. Seems wave ii of wave 3 is complete. Wave, a rather fierce downside can resume for ACC

Adani:
Currently Adani is at 612.75, at 2x ATR SL works out to 640. I expect this to be a formidable top for Adani and shorters may enter with the SL (in consonance with their capital). Longers can get out of this stock.

ALBK:
Nice TOP, risky short

Andhrabank:
One more overgrown PSU bank stock

APIL
61.8% retracement of wave B, ready for Wave C down. Wave A down was 1150 to 185, approx 83% correction. Expect wave C to see 83% correction\, with target of 126 on APIL

Ashok Leyland: Running Flat

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

The Long Term Picture: Nifty, Dow Jones, FTSE

We I was missing for a long time, my previous went off the window. But, Reliance totally rocked, in fact, only reliance is falling while, nifty is rising. Although can reach 5500, on a long term,  I am looking at this as a rather formidable wave B top.

Wave Counts of Nifty:
Preferred:

 Alternate:

 World Indices:
Dow Jones: Looks particularly weak and is ready for wave 3 down.

 FTSE: Copy cat of Dow Jones

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Nifty Intraday Update: 8th Jul 2010

Nifty Intraday Update:

Still maintain the bearish perspective on Nifty. Nifty has made a high of 5339.50. Seems nifty may now have completed wavce 2 high. I donot wish to move to alternate scenario.

Possible Wolfe wave in structure in wave c of wav 2. The wave 2 has retraced near 80%. I am now tired of such deep retracements. If this break down, lets see future. For a wolfe wave based target, nifty has 5200 on cards SL 5355.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

ACC Analysis dated 6th Jul 2010

Seems that ACC has completed Wave 2 on upside. The retracement is not a wave 2 typical retracement, the retracement currently is only 38.2%.

ACC shall be a sell below TL1 (Rs. 836), which shall lead to a cup and handle structure, with a price target of Rs. 789, from the lip of cup at 836. This is bearish setup. THe stock has given a negative crossover of 3 major EMAs (5,13, 34) and is coupled with a drop in ATR. As mentioned in previous post in Reliance, a low in ATR generally marks a change in trend. A break above 863 shall be bullish for the stock and break below 836 shall be bearish.

ACC EOD Chart Wave Count

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Reliance Analysis dated 6th Jul 2010

RIL completed it wave 1 down move [depicted in yellow font orange box] on an open low of Rs. 976 on 30th June. From that point Reliance has moved up in a flat formation 3-3-5 depicted in blue font a-b-c, ending at 30 Jun high of Rs. 1093. The rise of wave c od wave wave 2 has been a rather a Rising Diagonal type structure, a  break of line connect TL 1 shall be majorly bearish for reliance. The monthly pivot for reliance is at 1056, a rather strong support. The 34 EMA is at Rs. 1054. The bottom supports are in place. I expect a break of TL 1, which shall trigger a wave 3 for reliance, with a target of approximately Rs. 825.

Further the ATR is a lowest from Jan 2010, which also signals an change in trend is possible. Generally a lower ATR is accompanied by a change in trend, as it marks an exhaustion of currrent trend. The current ATR(14) is 23.

EOD Chart of Reliance:

Trade Strategy for RIL: A break of 1059 on EOD could be used to Short with a Stop loss of 1105 (earlier was wrong). This shall be an EOD based strategy. Upside potential is limited for Reliance, however, a break above today's high of 1081 shall be bullish, but i expect a target of only 1100 odd on RIL which shall be converging point for trendline joining (i) and (iii). Also, wave (iv) of wave 1 down is at 1100 which is rather huge resistance for upside move.

Refer Disclaimer in previous post...

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis dated 6th Jul 2010

I have been bearish, since my last many posts. And I have not updated blog for long. Now, this is count is only a continuation of my previous posts. I have been counting a completion of Ending Daigonal structure for Nifty at 5398 (7th Apr 2010). The wave 1 completed at 4786 (25 May 2010). This is a 48 days fall. Now, I am considering a time frame based structure, where I am considerinf wave 1 as part 1 of structure and wave 2 as part 2 of tiems structure. Assuming the 48 days as 0.618 of time frame, the balance preiod is 0.382, which works out to 30 days.

Now, 30 days from 25 May works out to 23 June 2010, which should have been the time frame for wave 2. I am counting 5378 as top of wave 2, which is very very deep retracement, but it fits the time equation, considering the top been made a day or 2 in advance on 21 June 2010, from where nifty declined to 5225 on 30 June 2010, which I am considering wave i of wave 1 of wave [3] and the rise today can be considered as wave ii. The structure is still inside the channel.

Although today was a good bullish candle, it still has not broken the high or low of the 30 Jun 2010 candle - 5323 & 5225 - today's range is 5324 - 5233. I still consider it from structure as an Inside Bar structure. On the EMA front, a bear candle could have triggered a 5-13 crossover. The major downside support are as follows:
a. 30 June 2010 low: 5225
b. monthly pivot at : 5209
c. 34 EMA at : 5205
d. 55 EMA at 5178
e. Weekly S1 support at : 5202

A reckon on prefered count scenario to have completed wave ii and Nifty to enter in wave iii of wave 1, whose target is 5166. The major further target for wave 3 is 5082 t0 5050 level. However, tomorrow's price action will determine the market move.

See the EOD chart of Nifty with wave count below:

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Nifty Intraday Update 5th Jul 2010

Nifty 30 min chart attached:

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Gold: Multi Year Top: Long Term Elliott Wave Count

GOLD..

Its difficult to stare from TOP.. But if this is it. then something fishy is happenning.. Gold maybe doing some nasty business..

Will post more detailed analysis on GOLD. This seems like $1275 is a major major TOP for GOLD.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

BP Oil Spill...

Well.. This post is not directed to Stock, in fact directed to what big BS BP has created in Gulf of Mexico.

This stuff never gets relesed..

Visit this link and check the pics...

this is absolutely horrifying dont know, what the BP's $20bn will do..

http://www.aladding.com/newsDetail.cfm?postid=496714

Visit the link.. spread the word...

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Stocks more: Bomdyeing, Century, Cairn, Crompton

And the some stocks jus keep coming:

One more: Bomdyeing:
The stock came down from 630 to 474 from 13 Apr to 25 May. The is now turning, and is lookign poised for an upside burst. This stock can be rocket stock for upmoves. This stock is currently at fairly low ATR, have given a positive 5-13 EMA crossover, could be good long trade with SL of 500, while 1.5x atr suggests a SL of 485. Althought ATR is relatively low, the stop is not too low in absolute terms. However, seems like a good stock to enter. 480 is a good support for the stock and I would say low stop loss would not hurt.

Century Textile:
From one textile stock to other. This one is also sporting a nice Cup and Handle. The currnet price of stock is 467, and the cup and handle lip is at 460. The level 450 is good SL, it is also a the crossover zone where EMA 5-13 and SMA 20 had a crossover. The stock has closed today above EMA 34 and is backed by good volumes over last few days. The ATR is also lowest, can a less risky upside stock.

CAIRN India:
Nice Inverted Head and Shoulder on Cairn India. The stock has given a good positive EMA crossover (5-13-34), the bollinger bands have just now expanded towards bullish, today was a good Bullish Hammer price action and a dip below neckline was bought out completely.
Based on Inverted Head and Shoulder, the target for the stock works out to Rs. 340, vs the current price of 305. The EMA cross over was on 10 June at Rs. 297. This price can be good SL -somewhere in the range of 295 seems a good level. The monthly Pivot of stock is at 295, so this can be a good SL, and would be a good support for the stock.

Crompton Greaves:
Now, this is stock has given a fantastic Inverted head and shoulder with superb EMA Crossover. In fact, the stock has a given a good EMA 5-13-34 crossover and is abvoe its 50 and 89 SMA. Plus, a nice breakout with volumes. The current price of stock is 255. Based on inverted HnS, the target price of the stock works out to 290. A new high is comin for the stock. ATR is at 8, just about taking a turn, could expect this one to go high now. :)
I can say this can be my top pick in the days to come.

Now, I am tired and sleeping, goin by alphabetical order is stopping at C now. :)

There would be loads of more stocks, these sre just few.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Stocks: LT, Sugar Stocks, Praj Industries, BHEL

In continuation with my previous post on Nifty (bullish) with Cup and Handle picture on Nifty anda target of approx 5508, I am posting stocks which are givng breakout, but can rally further.

LT: Inverted HnS (giant)
Is this an inverted HnS or what !!!!

Target is 2000, cmp is 1724 and SL would be 1680.

Sugar Stocks:
Looks like somebody found a bottom.

Bajaj Hind: - Cup and Handle and EMA Crossover:

There is a cup and handle structure on Bajaj Hind with a target of 130. Sugar seems to be goin up and sugar stocks are something to hold. 

Renuka Sugar:

Renuka Breakout today. Potential target of 80 with SL of 60

Praj Industries:
This is a possible breakout candidate. The stock has a very low ATR of 2.86. The bollinger band has contracted. Today was a good doji - bullish one with increase in volumes and break above today's high of 80.70 could suggest a target of 88 on the stock considering a possible triangle structure. Plus, today there has been a basic EMA crossover of 5-13. Now, tomo a crossing 34 EMA at 81.42 (cmp 80.20) can be good trigger for the stock. One more important fact, I see is the fall from 5th may was marred with low volumes, very stable volumes, no spikes suggesting unusal selling.

EDIT: Addition:
BHEL
Alogn with bullish LT, there is a possible Cup and Handle in BHEL. The price of BHEL is 2400, the target is 2500 (rs. 100 up). The stock has done a cup-lip testing. Plus, ATR is stable. On 10 June, stock gave 5-13 EMA crossover, with breakout. Seems todays testing phase of cup lip of the stock is done.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students