Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis dated 6th Jul 2010

I have been bearish, since my last many posts. And I have not updated blog for long. Now, this is count is only a continuation of my previous posts. I have been counting a completion of Ending Daigonal structure for Nifty at 5398 (7th Apr 2010). The wave 1 completed at 4786 (25 May 2010). This is a 48 days fall. Now, I am considering a time frame based structure, where I am considerinf wave 1 as part 1 of structure and wave 2 as part 2 of tiems structure. Assuming the 48 days as 0.618 of time frame, the balance preiod is 0.382, which works out to 30 days.

Now, 30 days from 25 May works out to 23 June 2010, which should have been the time frame for wave 2. I am counting 5378 as top of wave 2, which is very very deep retracement, but it fits the time equation, considering the top been made a day or 2 in advance on 21 June 2010, from where nifty declined to 5225 on 30 June 2010, which I am considering wave i of wave 1 of wave [3] and the rise today can be considered as wave ii. The structure is still inside the channel.

Although today was a good bullish candle, it still has not broken the high or low of the 30 Jun 2010 candle - 5323 & 5225 - today's range is 5324 - 5233. I still consider it from structure as an Inside Bar structure. On the EMA front, a bear candle could have triggered a 5-13 crossover. The major downside support are as follows:
a. 30 June 2010 low: 5225
b. monthly pivot at : 5209
c. 34 EMA at : 5205
d. 55 EMA at 5178
e. Weekly S1 support at : 5202

A reckon on prefered count scenario to have completed wave ii and Nifty to enter in wave iii of wave 1, whose target is 5166. The major further target for wave 3 is 5082 t0 5050 level. However, tomorrow's price action will determine the market move.

See the EOD chart of Nifty with wave count below:

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1 comment:

MurAtt said...


Since NF has now moved higher rather than coming down to 514x as you had said ... what do you reckon will happen .. i.e. wrt your wave count, alternate count and the tgts based on the alternate count etc etc.

An update preferably on this analysis.