NIfty Elliott Wave Dated 20 Apr 2011

Nifty seems to be headed for new highs; at least the wave suggests that for now.

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Nifty: Possible Scenario

Here is a possible scenario on nifty, which i can think of now. Read the comments on the chart as numbered

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Introducing NIFTY Alternate Elliott Wave Count

In continuation with my previous post where I had mentioned we need to be long with SL fof 5800 for  nifty target of 6000 zone, i see that based on an ALTERNATE perspective Nifty has a strong chance of making new highs. This scenario bodes well with my earlier count posted on SENSEX (readers would appreciate visiting the SENSEX post).

Here is an alternate scenario:

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Nifty: 27 Aug Intraday Update

Alternate Count: A break of Neckline at 5490, shall suggest a target of 5520 approx. With a possibel HnS and a retracement of about 80% for wave 2.

Preferred: Assuming wave 2 is complete at 5490 which retraced upto (iv) of 5 (38.2% retrace). Under that scenario we are wave of 1 of (3) down, with a target of 5346

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This is not a Nifty Trading Post, just an opinion post.

Market keeps extending its gain. In my previous I had referred this to be the top; but then had not ruled out a possibility of Nifty hitting 5500, which was over done today, with Nifty touching 5533. This is good though, but it seems, nifty has reached the upper trading bands. There is divergence of Indian market with the global markets. The global markets are running downtrend. In fact today US market which yesterday opened -150 points in DOW, closed down at same levels. If 1069 is broken on S&P500, then it could be headed in wave 3 down. If this level is held, we can even see 1106 on S&P (current S&P 500 1077). The near price confirmation for S&P is a break of 1069. Today US market may make low of wave (i) of wave 3 down. The S&P futures have already broken 1069, which as i write are currently at 1067. This can be considerably bearish for the global market. The European markets are as well bleeding, I had mentioned in previous post that FTSE,has started wave 3 down, which was forged yesterday. (the recent chart is given below).

On the other hand, I see Indian market making new tops. But, the move as even mentioned in previous post is an Ending Daigonal structure. I see this upmove to be also an Ending Daigonal within an Ending Daigonal move. The last leg Z is Ending Daigonal and the current upmove of Wave e is also an Ending Daigonal.

Ending Daigonal generally offshot the trading range, which is quiet possible. The current price of Nifty is 5527. The break of (ii) - (iv) line joining 6th Jul low of 5233 and 12 Aug low of 5363 shall be a confirmation for a top to be in place.

Coming to the topping views. As, I mentioned in previous paragraphs, India is divergent vs the global scenario. I must admit, I am big bull long term on India, and concur to 100000 target of Sensex, which was given by Elliott Wave International in around Apr 2009. But, I am for now in present tense more bearish, with this kind of Ending Daigonal structure in place.

I have mentioned a possible of 5600 above which is the monthly R2 Pivot point. Today was an indecisive on Indian market. Reliance is looking ready for bottoming out, probably. I am not much confident on that though. Today was an indecisive day. Reliance is only stock that may lead a rally, as of now, cause, it has a wave ii pending. This move can make a scenario for a upside move on Nifty, which can take nifty to 5600.

Following detailed chart of Nifty. As mentioned earlier, this looks as top, and break of (ii) - (iv) line shall give a confirmation.

Global Indices:

This was my previous FTSE count check chart here. FTSE has broken down an infact, as i write is down 25 points. It is now 5187 after hitting low of 5160.

The path is not time-wise, its just broadly the levels.

S&P has made a nice Head and Shoulder pattern.. The preferred scenario is that the HnS pattern works and and wave iii of 3 and the HnS target can take SnP 500 to 1010 level. Under alternate scenario (refer in red color), wherein the SnP 500 can in wave ii Flat can have a target of 1100.

Refer SnP 500 chart:

Refer next post for stock charts, i shall cover some stocks and indices in next post, which shal be based on weekly chart.



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Nifty 10 June Intraday Update

Break above 5040 could be an inverted HnS with target of 5140 (100 points distance between Neckline and Bottom of Head. This shall be further alternate scenario to yesterday's chart, where 4940 can be an X wave and we may make a direct double combination structure up. But break of 5040 and retest fo Neckline shall be able to give a better picture

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Nifty Intrraday update: dt 29 Apr

Cup and handle on Nifty.
Lip of cup is 5240/
Sub 5240 SL: 5231 Target 5280

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Nifty Wave Count dated 19 nov 2010

Nifty Wave Count:

Primary outlook bearish:
The yellow and the blue count are alternate counts are both bearish.

It would be hasty on my part to say Primary Wave B/2 is over for Indian market.

For now i am watching price action.
Following is my EOD wave count:

 This is a longer term wave count.

Zeroing on closer look:

5245 is the most important resistance for the market on the upside:
1. 5245 is where wave (iv) of previous rising wave 5 ended.
2. 5245 is where wave (iii) of 3 of the down move ended
3. 5245 is 38.2% retracement of wave 3
4. If the rise from wave 5162 is assumed as wave (a) of wave 4, then at 5245 / 5250 wave (c) would equate wave (a) and at wave (iv) of 3, the wave (c) would be 1.618 of wave (a)
5. 5245 is the gap zone so move above that zone would be resisted

Support at 5162: On EOD basis, 5162 is 55 EMA, which will provide good support for upmove, however a closing below this would be very bearish.
and ema 34 is at 5215 is can provide upward resistance. 

On a short term basis, a bounce is probable which can take nifty to 5245 - 5290 levels as well. Break of 55 EMA would result in further sell off.

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We are all students

Elliott Wave Update : Dated 12 March 2010

I had a target of 5200 on wave 2 as in my previous post, However, there was an inverted HnS, which has target of 5200, which retraces 80% of wave 1, which is quiet possible as wave 2 can retrace 99% of wave 1. We are having a zigzag formation for wave 2 and proper inverted head and shoulder (refer chart) whose target works out to 5200.

Currently we may have finished wave (iv) of wave c of wave 2. The 4th wave was a triangle and triangles are followed by thrusting action. This thrusting action, can take wave v to reach ard 5200. Plus we are witnessing a topping structure based divergence on RSI (14) and Nifty hourly.

Further, refer Timamo Post: Toppish Signs where a very good analysis of advance decline ratio is given.  

Refer chart:

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Nifty Hourly Wave Count

If we are still in wave 2, then we still have "c" pending.
Under a Bullish Scenario: Or say market goin up, then war can see Nifty reachin target of also 5100, which i had posted on my earlier blog, where potential targets based on EMA and SMA were given.
Bearish Scenario: Inability to cross 4930 could mean, we could have started wave 3, whose targets are fairly lower, meaning some thing in range of 4500 or so.

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Nifty intraday chart

Nifty Rolling Continous Futures 1 month.

30 Min charts

Refer commentary on chart.

It seems we have completed major wave action on top, and are looking at downside move. I would not be surprised if we gap down tomorrow. However, there is also chance of more sideways action tomo, considering wave v of the wave C turns out to be ending daigonal. Chart posted at end showing possible Ending Daigonal Structure

Ending Daigonal Scenario Chart:

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NIFTY: Short Term Analysis

 Nifty Intraday:

Nifty EOD:

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students