Friday, August 20, 2010

This is not a Nifty Trading Post, just an opinion post.

Market keeps extending its gain. In my previous I had referred this to be the top; but then had not ruled out a possibility of Nifty hitting 5500, which was over done today, with Nifty touching 5533. This is good though, but it seems, nifty has reached the upper trading bands. There is divergence of Indian market with the global markets. The global markets are running downtrend. In fact today US market which yesterday opened -150 points in DOW, closed down at same levels. If 1069 is broken on S&P500, then it could be headed in wave 3 down. If this level is held, we can even see 1106 on S&P (current S&P 500 1077). The near price confirmation for S&P is a break of 1069. Today US market may make low of wave (i) of wave 3 down. The S&P futures have already broken 1069, which as i write are currently at 1067. This can be considerably bearish for the global market. The European markets are as well bleeding, I had mentioned in previous post that FTSE,has started wave 3 down, which was forged yesterday. (the recent chart is given below).

On the other hand, I see Indian market making new tops. But, the move as even mentioned in previous post is an Ending Daigonal structure. I see this upmove to be also an Ending Daigonal within an Ending Daigonal move. The last leg Z is Ending Daigonal and the current upmove of Wave e is also an Ending Daigonal.

Ending Daigonal generally offshot the trading range, which is quiet possible. The current price of Nifty is 5527. The break of (ii) - (iv) line joining 6th Jul low of 5233 and 12 Aug low of 5363 shall be a confirmation for a top to be in place.

Coming to the topping views. As, I mentioned in previous paragraphs, India is divergent vs the global scenario. I must admit, I am big bull long term on India, and concur to 100000 target of Sensex, which was given by Elliott Wave International in around Apr 2009. But, I am for now in present tense more bearish, with this kind of Ending Daigonal structure in place.

I have mentioned a possible of 5600 above which is the monthly R2 Pivot point. Today was an indecisive on Indian market. Reliance is looking ready for bottoming out, probably. I am not much confident on that though. Today was an indecisive day. Reliance is only stock that may lead a rally, as of now, cause, it has a wave ii pending. This move can make a scenario for a upside move on Nifty, which can take nifty to 5600.

Following detailed chart of Nifty. As mentioned earlier, this looks as top, and break of (ii) - (iv) line shall give a confirmation.

Global Indices:

This was my previous FTSE count check chart here. FTSE has broken down an infact, as i write is down 25 points. It is now 5187 after hitting low of 5160.

The path is not time-wise, its just broadly the levels.

S&P has made a nice Head and Shoulder pattern.. The preferred scenario is that the HnS pattern works and and wave iii of 3 and the HnS target can take SnP 500 to 1010 level. Under alternate scenario (refer in red color), wherein the SnP 500 can in wave ii Flat can have a target of 1100.

Refer SnP 500 chart:

Refer next post for stock charts, i shall cover some stocks and indices in next post, which shal be based on weekly chart.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

No comments: