Metal Focus: Copper, STER, SAIL, JSW

In the following post discuss charts with focus on metals.

Firstly, the major metal chart:
1. Copper:
Copper is making divergence of chart. It would be hasty to call a top on copper, but a short tern rising trendline (1) is been broken.  However, line (2) is a major support line. Sub 340, major bearishness shall creep in the commodity. As of now, i see, copper making a topping structure. I am not able to fix up wave count, but would advise caution over longs in copper.

Follwing is EOD chart of Copper:

Coming down to metal stocks:

The following stocks are focussed on:
1. Sterlite
2. SAIL
3. JSW Steel

Sterlite (CMP 837)
The stocks seems to have completed wave 2 upside and is poised for downside of wave 3 been in the range of Rs. 560.

Have posted comments on chart. For any short, i would consider a stop loss of 871. But, until new high is made on Sterlite, i would have a bearish outlook on Sterlite.

Plus, with copper making or been in a topping process, the stock is poised for major downside.


2. SAIL:

Following chart of SAIL is pretty self explanatory. I have posted my commnets.

On EOD basis the stock is bearish. On intraday basis, the stock can give bit of upside.

EOD Bearish target: 150 Current price 228

Intraday short of bull case: target 239

Bear case, target 214

Refer chart for comments:

EOD SAIL

SAIL Intrday 60 min chart:

JSW Steel (cmp: 1288)
JSW Steel is a gravity defying stock. i would say there is a major rising wedge on stock.
Breaking FW(2) line wil be bearish for the stock with Price target in range of Rs. 600. I would not say it will break in this week or not. But, if FW (2) breaks, then targets of Rs. 600 are possible.


JSW Weekly chart:

Disclaimer: The above is my analysis of stocks and not any recommendation. These are my studies and based on which i take my own trading decisions, Nothing above should be construed as trading advice.
Use your own stoploss, protect ur capital else u r screwed.

RIL: Once again, HnS or Falling Wedge

RIL is making a HnS and a Falling Wedge.
Refer chart for comments:
Corrections on Chart time frame, its 10 min chart, with moving average negative crossover.
HnS  in place and Falling  Wedge

: These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students

Educomp: Follow-up post.. Inverted HnS in intraday, EOD more power

Had posted on blog that Educomp is poised up move on 6th Jan 2010 mentioning a case for falling wedge / triangle breakout.
The stock is moving up today, it consolidated for three days. Intraday chart suggest buying with SL of 785 for a target of 830. The current price of 792.

NSEIT: A Top in Place or just a little bit more before the tumble..

NSEIT:
NSE IT: has had a stellar rally from the bottom made in Mar 2009 to current 5923. Since the rally has been parallel the structure has been a corrective type rather than an implusive one. The index has made a top in y2K rally, so i am considering all charts as a corrective pattern rather than impulsive one.

Wave Strucuture: The Index is in WXYXZ, where we are in process of making a Final Z Top, thus making IT index ready for a PLUNGE. Max i think on the upside we may as well see 6100 to 6200 zone, however that would occur, where the Index decides to make an Ending Daigonal for Wave Z. Currently, the wave Z seems to be a ZigZag formation ending with Three Black Soldiers.

Daily Chart Wave Count Comment:
Ideally, a top would be good with Infy results coming out makin it a Blow-Off top wave "e", been a proper Ending Daigonal for wave "Z" Top. This is a typical Triple Combination with:

(1) W been a Zig Zag,

(2) wave Y exhaustion  with another double combination,
   1) with Wave "w" zigzag,
   2) "x" small triangle,
   3) wave "y" been a triangle "abcde". As we know about triangles, "triangles generally appear in wave prior to last actionary wave. As such, it has occured in wave "y" of wave Y.

Now, we are in last leg of upside move for this Index (all IT shares). Currently, the rising X'-b line has been breaches; and on daily charts we see a "Three Black Soldiers" formation. This is proper bearish structure and can suggests a top in place. Plus, on weekly charts, the Insehas made an "Evening Star" candle pattern with surging Volumes.

The Fall from Jan 2008 Wave Count on IT Index:

The rise from Mart 2009 Lows Detailed wave Count:

Weekly Chart: If we look at Weekly chart, there is a Double Top structure, based on which one can be short on Index with Stop Loss of 6000 and target of 3900 (~50% of height from Mar 09 Low of 1992 to Jan 2010 high of 5923). The weekly charts suggest a medium term top in place.

Swing Commentary: Based on Swing Break status (employed by the Turtle Traders and promoted in india by KPL of vfmdirect.co.in). I have analyzed the weekly swing status of NSEIT and observed that the rally was so strong that the lowest low the stock ever maintained was 3 weeks. Meaning since the uptrend has started, the Index has not even fallen to breach the lowest low made in preceding low.
"3 Week Swing Status": The Rally in NSEIT has been so strong, that on weekly charts, the stock had given a Three Week Swing Buy on week ended 20th Mar 2009 at close of 2229.35 from where it has rallied to 5923. As of now, it has not given a sell on 3-Week Swing Basis, which stands at this week's low of 5599.30.

"2 Week Swing Status": Based on two weeks swing, the Index has given a Sell signal. Previously, the stock. Check Chart 3 for Swing Break on Weekly basis.

Future scenarios:
I would not be surprised if there is a short term bounce in place. As of now, if we donot bounce back, I think we have a top that can take the IT Index to at least 4200 mark. Under a bullish scenario, a one more blow off peak cannot be ruled out, targetting 6100 zone. however, i reckon the index has lost steam, and that will only be wave "e" of final "Z" Top.

Verdict: Short with SL of 6000. The stop loss is around 400 points up. So be careful there could be an bounce day and adequately position yourself. On the upside i think 6000 to 6200 is max zone.