Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Will we kick of (iii) of 1 tomo?? and view on RIL, Airtel, Relcap, ABB, SBIN

Nifty is getting stiff resistance at 4930. As mentioned in previous post, inabilitty to cross 4930 could lead nifty to start of wave (iii) of Wave 1. Plus, the whole world was shouting of a nifty target of 5100 taking into account a Inverse Head & Shoulder, which was never formed. That lead to bullish sentiment among many Technical Analyst and TV Analyst as usual are jumping of their feet or couch to be Bullish as ever. Anyhow, thats what they are paid for.

Now, coming to nifty, see the 30 minute chart of nifty, and yes an Inv HnS is still there, however, as mentioned in first para, there has been too much of propaganda of the same. As a result, i would consider that as such markets moving higher may be difficult.  Having said that, seems that, what i want most is about to be granted.

On my preferred scenario, i expect Nifty to crack and kick off wave (iii) of Wave 1. (30 min chart)

So, that means, what we are going to see is a failure. I have learnt one thing in chart trading, TRADE FAILURES. Why !!! because failure is mass rejection, so then mass everyone will go against their right and you will be on the right side of trade. So, for wave 3 to kick start, a failure of currently widely recognized Inverted HnS would be be a treat.

So, moving away from my imaginations and putting credible stuff for failure, i now propose Reliance Industries chart. The following is 30 min chart of RIL, again it is showing same colors as Nifty, more tilted to downside than upside. Reliance holds the key for Nifty & Sensex and in turn the broader market. There is a proper and good Head and Shoulder in RIL with a target of Rs. 926 with neckline at 982, providing a Rs. 56 downside based on Intraday charts. However, such move downward, trigger wave 3 for Reliance.

Next on Stop is BhartiArtl: Boy oh Boy, this fundamental crap story of Bharti i keep reading everywhere is amazing. Well there is giant Head n Shouler and the sub 270, this stock is turkey. This stock was turkey for long time, and i am not invested in it. I got out long time ago, anyhow thats not the issue here. Sub 275, i reckon target of 107 on Bharti Artl. One of strong support for Bharti is 250 - 240 zone.

Now, one more stock i had posted in my previous post Stock Status: Relcapital among other, where i had mentioned about a flag structure. Now Reliance Capital is a very important stock, representing first Anil Ambani, Mutual Fund Industry meaning direct dealing in stock market, Insurances and an entire gamut of Financial services. So movement of relcapital is very important. This pic was posted in previous post. Flag There is a proper flag breakdown, with target of Rs. 657 is sight.
Updated Relcapital chart below:

One more Heavy Industries giant is about to break down. I am seeing a completion of wave 2 and possible Wolfe wave with target of Rs. 600, and current price of stock been Rs. 807. Refer wave count below:

I saved the best for last, but i since i donot like to blow my own trumpet, i would say pls see the following post My Musings with Bank Stocks (especially look at SBIN Charts) posted in Dec, where believed that SBIN has done what was necessary from it and is headed for down journey. Since that price of Rs. 2100, SBIN is currently Rs. 1900 (and please i am not starting subscription crap based on the blog). So relax if i blow my trumpet a bit :) Anyhow, now attaching current chart of SBIN stock is process of Pennant / Flag  / Triangle Breakdown.

In that post i did say there are two major reasons i was bearish on SBIN, firstly the gaint Double Top and secondly a flat wave structure. For a follower of EWT, in a Flat structure wave a = wave b = wave c, and wave c can also reach 1.618 of wave a. But assuming a normal flat, i was assuming target of around Rs. 1000. Anyways, that the interpretation of Flat structure.

So let me know, how u like this post and other previous post

Disclaimer: These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

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