Will we kick of (iii) of 1 tomo?? and view on RIL, Airtel, Relcap, ABB, SBIN

Nifty is getting stiff resistance at 4930. As mentioned in previous post, inabilitty to cross 4930 could lead nifty to start of wave (iii) of Wave 1. Plus, the whole world was shouting of a nifty target of 5100 taking into account a Inverse Head & Shoulder, which was never formed. That lead to bullish sentiment among many Technical Analyst and TV Analyst as usual are jumping of their feet or couch to be Bullish as ever. Anyhow, thats what they are paid for.

Now, coming to nifty, see the 30 minute chart of nifty, and yes an Inv HnS is still there, however, as mentioned in first para, there has been too much of propaganda of the same. As a result, i would consider that as such markets moving higher may be difficult.  Having said that, seems that, what i want most is about to be granted.

On my preferred scenario, i expect Nifty to crack and kick off wave (iii) of Wave 1. (30 min chart)

So, that means, what we are going to see is a failure. I have learnt one thing in chart trading, TRADE FAILURES. Why !!! because failure is mass rejection, so then mass everyone will go against their right and you will be on the right side of trade. So, for wave 3 to kick start, a failure of currently widely recognized Inverted HnS would be be a treat.

So, moving away from my imaginations and putting credible stuff for failure, i now propose Reliance Industries chart. The following is 30 min chart of RIL, again it is showing same colors as Nifty, more tilted to downside than upside. Reliance holds the key for Nifty & Sensex and in turn the broader market. There is a proper and good Head and Shoulder in RIL with a target of Rs. 926 with neckline at 982, providing a Rs. 56 downside based on Intraday charts. However, such move downward, trigger wave 3 for Reliance.

Next on Stop is BhartiArtl: Boy oh Boy, this fundamental crap story of Bharti i keep reading everywhere is amazing. Well there is giant Head n Shouler and the sub 270, this stock is turkey. This stock was turkey for long time, and i am not invested in it. I got out long time ago, anyhow thats not the issue here. Sub 275, i reckon target of 107 on Bharti Artl. One of strong support for Bharti is 250 - 240 zone.

Now, one more stock i had posted in my previous post Stock Status: Relcapital among other, where i had mentioned about a flag structure. Now Reliance Capital is a very important stock, representing first Anil Ambani, Mutual Fund Industry meaning direct dealing in stock market, Insurances and an entire gamut of Financial services. So movement of relcapital is very important. This pic was posted in previous post. Flag There is a proper flag breakdown, with target of Rs. 657 is sight.
Updated Relcapital chart below:

One more Heavy Industries giant is about to break down. I am seeing a completion of wave 2 and possible Wolfe wave with target of Rs. 600, and current price of stock been Rs. 807. Refer wave count below:

I saved the best for last, but i since i donot like to blow my own trumpet, i would say pls see the following post My Musings with Bank Stocks (especially look at SBIN Charts) posted in Dec, where believed that SBIN has done what was necessary from it and is headed for down journey. Since that price of Rs. 2100, SBIN is currently Rs. 1900 (and please i am not starting subscription crap based on the blog). So relax if i blow my trumpet a bit :) Anyhow, now attaching current chart of SBIN stock is process of Pennant / Flag  / Triangle Breakdown.

In that post i did say there are two major reasons i was bearish on SBIN, firstly the gaint Double Top and secondly a flat wave structure. For a follower of EWT, in a Flat structure wave a = wave b = wave c, and wave c can also reach 1.618 of wave a. But assuming a normal flat, i was assuming target of around Rs. 1000. Anyways, that the interpretation of Flat structure.

So let me know, how u like this post and other previous post

Disclaimer: These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Bhartiartl, STC India

Bhartiart:
Trendline Breach: The stock has breached the rising trendline, and can be seen as an ideal short candidate. Refer chart below:
The stock has closed at 325, below its 55 EMA @ 327.01, with EMA 5 @ 326 & EMA 13 @ 325. The next immediate EMA support is at EMA 34 @ 321.78. The stock is still weak since it is below its 89 day SMA. On weekly basis, the stock is below its 13 Week EMA which stands at 328, while all other EMAs are stacks between 350 to 365. The 5 week EMA is now at 322.53.

Bhart Artl : Chart 1

The stock on longer terms charts is makingan in Head Shoulders pattern with neckline at 275. A breach of neckline could propel the stock to a plunge to Rs. 145 level.
Bhartiartl : Chart 2 : HnS possible

STC India:

STCINDIA (nse ticker) has given an upward breakout. The stock based on Rectangular pattern breakout can reach 542 and based on Bullish Flag Breakout can reach 726. The stop loss for this Long trade shall be Rs. 380 zone.

STCINDIA: Chart 3 : Rectangle BO / Flag / Inv HnS

Bhartiartl: Short Trade

 Bhartiartl:
On Hourly charts, today bharti artl has given a break down at Rs. 314 forming an Inverted Cup and Handle with Cup Lip at 314. I expect the stock to trade down with stop loss above the cup at a 321. Based on the distance from the Cup top to lip, the stock seems to be poised for downside of approximate 284 with possible support and resistances marked on the chart.

On EOD basis, the stock has closed below 50 SMA and is currently below all its leading moving averages. As such, it can be said that the rise from Dec start was merely an upward break after selling pressure, the stock major support at 280 to 270 zone.

A Close below that could propel a massive Head and Shoulder formation. However, there are various checks and balances for the completion of formation. But for now on EOD basis watch 280 to 275 zone. Based on intraday data analysis, the stock reaching 284 zone is highly probable.

Based on Swing indicator, the stock has today broken 5 to 9 days swing. A close below 309.05, could lead to a 10 days swing break.

Verdict: Short
Current trailing SL 313
The black channel on Hourly chart hold for downtrend, break above that could also lead to change in position.

Following are basic Support and Resistance levels to be watched for Bharti for current week and current month.

Pivots	Monthly	Weekly
S2	246.00	302.75
S1	273.00	310.00
Pivot	299.50	322.45
R1	326.00	329.70
R2	352.50	342.15

 S: denotes Support, R denotes Resistance

Disclaimer: These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students