These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Ranbaxy: Upside Potential (Inv HnS)
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Will we kick of (iii) of 1 tomo?? and view on RIL, Airtel, Relcap, ABB, SBIN
Nifty is getting stiff resistance at 4930. As mentioned in previous post, inabilitty to cross 4930 could lead nifty to start of wave (iii) of Wave 1. Plus, the whole world was shouting of a nifty target of 5100 taking into account a Inverse Head & Shoulder, which was never formed. That lead to bullish sentiment among many Technical Analyst and TV Analyst as usual are jumping of their feet or couch to be Bullish as ever. Anyhow, thats what they are paid for.
Now, coming to nifty, see the 30 minute chart of nifty, and yes an Inv HnS is still there, however, as mentioned in first para, there has been too much of propaganda of the same. As a result, i would consider that as such markets moving higher may be difficult. Having said that, seems that, what i want most is about to be granted.
On my preferred scenario, i expect Nifty to crack and kick off wave (iii) of Wave 1. (30 min chart)
So, that means, what we are going to see is a failure. I have learnt one thing in chart trading, TRADE FAILURES. Why !!! because failure is mass rejection, so then mass everyone will go against their right and you will be on the right side of trade. So, for wave 3 to kick start, a failure of currently widely recognized Inverted HnS would be be a treat.
So, moving away from my imaginations and putting credible stuff for failure, i now propose Reliance Industries chart. The following is 30 min chart of RIL, again it is showing same colors as Nifty, more tilted to downside than upside. Reliance holds the key for Nifty & Sensex and in turn the broader market. There is a proper and good Head and Shoulder in RIL with a target of Rs. 926 with neckline at 982, providing a Rs. 56 downside based on Intraday charts. However, such move downward, trigger wave 3 for Reliance.
Next on Stop is BhartiArtl: Boy oh Boy, this fundamental crap story of Bharti i keep reading everywhere is amazing. Well there is giant Head n Shouler and the sub 270, this stock is turkey. This stock was turkey for long time, and i am not invested in it. I got out long time ago, anyhow thats not the issue here. Sub 275, i reckon target of 107 on Bharti Artl. One of strong support for Bharti is 250 - 240 zone.
Now, one more stock i had posted in my previous post Stock Status: Relcapital among other, where i had mentioned about a flag structure. Now Reliance Capital is a very important stock, representing first Anil Ambani, Mutual Fund Industry meaning direct dealing in stock market, Insurances and an entire gamut of Financial services. So movement of relcapital is very important. This pic was posted in previous post. Flag There is a proper flag breakdown, with target of Rs. 657 is sight.
Updated Relcapital chart below:
One more Heavy Industries giant is about to break down. I am seeing a completion of wave 2 and possible Wolfe wave with target of Rs. 600, and current price of stock been Rs. 807. Refer wave count below:
I saved the best for last, but i since i donot like to blow my own trumpet, i would say pls see the following post My Musings with Bank Stocks (especially look at SBIN Charts) posted in Dec, where believed that SBIN has done what was necessary from it and is headed for down journey. Since that price of Rs. 2100, SBIN is currently Rs. 1900 (and please i am not starting subscription crap based on the blog). So relax if i blow my trumpet a bit :) Anyhow, now attaching current chart of SBIN stock is process of Pennant / Flag / Triangle Breakdown.
In that post i did say there are two major reasons i was bearish on SBIN, firstly the gaint Double Top and secondly a flat wave structure. For a follower of EWT, in a Flat structure wave a = wave b = wave c, and wave c can also reach 1.618 of wave a. But assuming a normal flat, i was assuming target of around Rs. 1000. Anyways, that the interpretation of Flat structure.
So let me know, how u like this post and other previous post
Disclaimer: These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students
Now, coming to nifty, see the 30 minute chart of nifty, and yes an Inv HnS is still there, however, as mentioned in first para, there has been too much of propaganda of the same. As a result, i would consider that as such markets moving higher may be difficult. Having said that, seems that, what i want most is about to be granted.
On my preferred scenario, i expect Nifty to crack and kick off wave (iii) of Wave 1. (30 min chart)
So, that means, what we are going to see is a failure. I have learnt one thing in chart trading, TRADE FAILURES. Why !!! because failure is mass rejection, so then mass everyone will go against their right and you will be on the right side of trade. So, for wave 3 to kick start, a failure of currently widely recognized Inverted HnS would be be a treat.
So, moving away from my imaginations and putting credible stuff for failure, i now propose Reliance Industries chart. The following is 30 min chart of RIL, again it is showing same colors as Nifty, more tilted to downside than upside. Reliance holds the key for Nifty & Sensex and in turn the broader market. There is a proper and good Head and Shoulder in RIL with a target of Rs. 926 with neckline at 982, providing a Rs. 56 downside based on Intraday charts. However, such move downward, trigger wave 3 for Reliance.
Next on Stop is BhartiArtl: Boy oh Boy, this fundamental crap story of Bharti i keep reading everywhere is amazing. Well there is giant Head n Shouler and the sub 270, this stock is turkey. This stock was turkey for long time, and i am not invested in it. I got out long time ago, anyhow thats not the issue here. Sub 275, i reckon target of 107 on Bharti Artl. One of strong support for Bharti is 250 - 240 zone.
Now, one more stock i had posted in my previous post Stock Status: Relcapital among other, where i had mentioned about a flag structure. Now Reliance Capital is a very important stock, representing first Anil Ambani, Mutual Fund Industry meaning direct dealing in stock market, Insurances and an entire gamut of Financial services. So movement of relcapital is very important. This pic was posted in previous post. Flag There is a proper flag breakdown, with target of Rs. 657 is sight.
Updated Relcapital chart below:
One more Heavy Industries giant is about to break down. I am seeing a completion of wave 2 and possible Wolfe wave with target of Rs. 600, and current price of stock been Rs. 807. Refer wave count below:
I saved the best for last, but i since i donot like to blow my own trumpet, i would say pls see the following post My Musings with Bank Stocks (especially look at SBIN Charts) posted in Dec, where believed that SBIN has done what was necessary from it and is headed for down journey. Since that price of Rs. 2100, SBIN is currently Rs. 1900 (and please i am not starting subscription crap based on the blog). So relax if i blow my trumpet a bit :) Anyhow, now attaching current chart of SBIN stock is process of Pennant / Flag / Triangle Breakdown.
In that post i did say there are two major reasons i was bearish on SBIN, firstly the gaint Double Top and secondly a flat wave structure. For a follower of EWT, in a Flat structure wave a = wave b = wave c, and wave c can also reach 1.618 of wave a. But assuming a normal flat, i was assuming target of around Rs. 1000. Anyways, that the interpretation of Flat structure.
So let me know, how u like this post and other previous post
Disclaimer: These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students
Friday, February 19, 2010
Nifty Hourly Wave Count
If we are still in wave 2, then we still have "c" pending.
Under a Bullish Scenario: Or say market goin up, then war can see Nifty reachin target of also 5100, which i had posted on my earlier blog, where potential targets based on EMA and SMA were given.
Bearish Scenario: Inability to cross 4930 could mean, we could have started wave 3, whose targets are fairly lower, meaning some thing in range of 4500 or so.
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
Under a Bullish Scenario: Or say market goin up, then war can see Nifty reachin target of also 5100, which i had posted on my earlier blog, where potential targets based on EMA and SMA were given.
Bearish Scenario: Inability to cross 4930 could mean, we could have started wave 3, whose targets are fairly lower, meaning some thing in range of 4500 or so.
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
Stock Status: Relcapital, Reliance, NTPC
Relcapital: Flag Breakdown
NTPC: Major Support gone for now.. 200
Reliance:
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
NTPC: Major Support gone for now.. 200
Reliance:
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Nifty @ Crossroads
Few days ago i posted a chart saying Flag Polar Bears. I had posted two charts on Nifty and Reliance. However, last few days price action of nifty has been stable at the 200 day Simple Moving Average; and it getting hard to break the moving average.
If we look at the 30 min chart, there is clear 5 wave down structure on Nifty, which suggest that the nifty could be up for bounce. As of now, i am counting the end of wave 5 of wave 1 here.
Scenario 1: In case of wave 1 is ended with wave (v) at 4675, then we are looking at wave 2 target of:
EOD 144 SMA: 4874
Wave (iv) : 4950
EOD 55 EMA: 5029
EOD 89 SMA: 5009
EOD 200 SMA: 4664
For Bullish scenario to be true, Nifty must break out of the falling channel; and close on 30 min basis above close above 4819.
Under a bearish scenario, meaning where we donot break out of channel, then nifty could make new lows, or touch 200 Day moving average. But, in case of down move, then the Flag posted can also kick in, in that case, this wave count will be invalid. However, new wave count is what i am not exploring now, then i would let the entire down price action pan out, else it would be futile. So i will let price do the talking. For now the above targets are for bullish scenarion and refer Polar Bears post.
Well enjoy the ride. Play with trend.
Disclaimer: Take own decisions in trading and investments.
Friday, February 5, 2010
Polar Bears are Back with Bang.. This is the end!!!! Nifty, RIL Flag.
Missed me.. hehe..
Picture Source: Wikipedia
Well hello stranger did u miss me. I am Polar Bear. I am generally found at Arctic Circle (TOP !!!!) Well, so much for the rally. I have a very bearish count, but i prefer to have it in wraps.
My post is coming after 250+ point fall in Dow Jones and all blogs got their asses wipped. All the bear blog we saying SPX and DJIA will rise a lot, but it jus hit them right in face. Kenny was rather spot on, cause he said that the Wave 2 requires 3 waves, and those are over. If we do have X then we may move up, but todays Dow and SPX price action was start of wave 3 in many aspects.
Coming back to India: I have a simple parameters of moving averages:
1. 89 SMA
2. 144 SMA
If u r below then gone, if above then rock on.
Look at what is happening everywhere, hyper bullishness. Thats good no problem, but the Polar Bears are here and after a long Hibernation, so u got a chance to catch a train.
Today was flag day. I am attaching below Nifty Chart and Reliance Chart. Refer them, see the clear Flag.
Major Trendline was broken. with fall below 55 EMA and 89 SMA. I did think, market would retrace to these SMAs and EMAs; but looks like that is not the case. The markets are falling. Close an 4800 should trigger a Fall Break Down. Which could take Nifty to 4492 zone, the 3rd Nov low zone. This was first serious fall based on FAKE Dubai shit news. This time things will be different, cause, u have no news now. The only new is POLAR BEARS are back.
Reliance Industries Limited:
RIL today already has broken the flag. It can act as FLAG as well as CUP n HANDLE. I am bit skeptical putting my count on Reliance, but based on the count, the target of RIL is Rs. 700.
On my Twitter account i am shouting from 1138 on Reliance to be Shorted :)
Well, i can say, i am getting better. Lets hope that continues
Refer my post on Banks in Dec 2009, where had called The Top for banks. I am bored of giving the link, maybe tomo will repost an update. Refer my Post on CNXIT, Infy etc IT companies, where i said that it is the top or maybe Wave e is pending, well wave e came and they crashed. I was bit wrong with metals, but all i can say, they are totally gone.
I would be posting a Commodities Post, where, every i will put some charts.
Disclaimer: I am Mega Polar Bear.
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
Well hello stranger did u miss me. I am Polar Bear. I am generally found at Arctic Circle (TOP !!!!) Well, so much for the rally. I have a very bearish count, but i prefer to have it in wraps.
My post is coming after 250+ point fall in Dow Jones and all blogs got their asses wipped. All the bear blog we saying SPX and DJIA will rise a lot, but it jus hit them right in face. Kenny was rather spot on, cause he said that the Wave 2 requires 3 waves, and those are over. If we do have X then we may move up, but todays Dow and SPX price action was start of wave 3 in many aspects.
Coming back to India: I have a simple parameters of moving averages:
1. 89 SMA
2. 144 SMA
If u r below then gone, if above then rock on.
Look at what is happening everywhere, hyper bullishness. Thats good no problem, but the Polar Bears are here and after a long Hibernation, so u got a chance to catch a train.
Today was flag day. I am attaching below Nifty Chart and Reliance Chart. Refer them, see the clear Flag.
Major Trendline was broken. with fall below 55 EMA and 89 SMA. I did think, market would retrace to these SMAs and EMAs; but looks like that is not the case. The markets are falling. Close an 4800 should trigger a Fall Break Down. Which could take Nifty to 4492 zone, the 3rd Nov low zone. This was first serious fall based on FAKE Dubai shit news. This time things will be different, cause, u have no news now. The only new is POLAR BEARS are back.
Reliance Industries Limited:
RIL today already has broken the flag. It can act as FLAG as well as CUP n HANDLE. I am bit skeptical putting my count on Reliance, but based on the count, the target of RIL is Rs. 700.
On my Twitter account i am shouting from 1138 on Reliance to be Shorted :)
Well, i can say, i am getting better. Lets hope that continues
Refer my post on Banks in Dec 2009, where had called The Top for banks. I am bored of giving the link, maybe tomo will repost an update. Refer my Post on CNXIT, Infy etc IT companies, where i said that it is the top or maybe Wave e is pending, well wave e came and they crashed. I was bit wrong with metals, but all i can say, they are totally gone.
I would be posting a Commodities Post, where, every i will put some charts.
Disclaimer: I am Mega Polar Bear.
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Look what i found !!!
This is what i found on a blog.. Hard to disagree.. Why am been politically correct. This is the future..
Rock on baby!!!!
Source: http://www.screencast.com/users/mkt_ronin/folders/Jing/media/ba043d23-997c-43c4-b641-904d2e8acd51
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
Rock on baby!!!!
Source: http://www.screencast.com/users/mkt_ronin/folders/Jing/media/ba043d23-997c-43c4-b641-904d2e8acd51
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
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