Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Nifty @ Crossroads

Few days ago i posted a chart saying Flag  Polar Bears. I had posted two charts on Nifty and Reliance. However, last few days price action of nifty has been stable at the 200 day Simple Moving Average; and it getting hard to break the moving average.

If we look at the 30 min chart, there is clear 5 wave down structure on Nifty, which suggest that the nifty could be up for bounce. As of now, i am counting the end of wave 5 of wave 1 here. 

Scenario 1: In case of wave 1 is ended with wave (v) at 4675, then we are looking at wave 2 target of:
EOD 144 SMA: 4874
Wave (iv) : 4950
EOD 55 EMA: 5029
EOD 89 SMA: 5009
EOD 200 SMA: 4664
For Bullish scenario to be true, Nifty must break out of the falling channel; and close on 30 min basis above close above 4819. 

Under a bearish scenario, meaning where we donot break out of channel, then nifty could make new lows, or touch 200 Day moving average. But, in case of down move, then the Flag posted can also kick in, in that case, this wave count will be invalid. However, new wave count is what i am not exploring now, then i would let the entire down price action pan out, else it would be futile. So i will let price do the talking. For now the above targets are for bullish scenarion and refer Polar Bears post. 

Well enjoy the ride. Play with trend.

Disclaimer: Take own decisions in trading and investments.

1 comment:

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