Showing posts with label Longer Term Count. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Longer Term Count. Show all posts

Sunday, February 27, 2011

The Currency Post: Vol. 1: AUDUSD / Australian Dollar Outlook

AUDUSD

Notes:
The first leg up for AUD from 2001, when it hit the bottom of 0.5 moved to 1.0, which is nearly the double. Now, from there it sank back to 0.6, where it took support on the long term trendline support. If that trendline support is anything to believed then, all I can say it back tested the bearish stance of the AUD and moved up. While, AUD has not yet captured its all time high of 1.5 / 1.6, I would say it is just a matter of time. Why would i put up such a stance, well two major reasons 1) back testing long term trendline and then moving up is a major bullish endevaor and 2) the upmove from 2001 is rather an impulsive one. The waves are clear and the structure looks rather more impressive. Since, it has not made a new high, I will keep the count as a Primary degree A or 1 and the down fall as Primary degree B or 2 and now we are in wave 1 of III of cycle degree. Well, now if we are in an impulsive 5 wave major cycle up for AUD, then we are only seeing wave 1 of AUD now. However, in case AUD fails to go up after, then we may see wave C now.

Lets see how things pan out..

Further, one should also refer to the near term chart below, which is a weekly structure based; which clearly suggests a rather bullish outlook for AUD. On weekly chart, AUD is poised to break the triangle, which can propel it to 5th wave up. Further, waves are rather clear.

Side note: If AUD heads up, watch out for bullishness on copper and metals mined in Australia. Actually, there is a lot to write fundamentally, but due to lack of time its difficult to post everything. Lets see, going forward.



These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Monday, April 19, 2010

Nifty Wave Count dated 19 nov 2010

Nifty Wave Count:

Primary outlook bearish:
The yellow and the blue count are alternate counts are both bearish.

It would be hasty on my part to say Primary Wave B/2 is over for Indian market.

For now i am watching price action.
Following is my EOD wave count:


 This is a longer term wave count.

Zeroing on closer look:

5245 is the most important resistance for the market on the upside:
1. 5245 is where wave (iv) of previous rising wave 5 ended.
2. 5245 is where wave (iii) of 3 of the down move ended
3. 5245 is 38.2% retracement of wave 3
4. If the rise from wave 5162 is assumed as wave (a) of wave 4, then at 5245 / 5250 wave (c) would equate wave (a) and at wave (iv) of 3, the wave (c) would be 1.618 of wave (a)
5. 5245 is the gap zone so move above that zone would be resisted

Support at 5162: On EOD basis, 5162 is 55 EMA, which will provide good support for upmove, however a closing below this would be very bearish.
and ema 34 is at 5215 is can provide upward resistance. 

On a short term basis, a bounce is probable which can take nifty to 5245 - 5290 levels as well. Break of 55 EMA would result in further sell off.





These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students