Break Out Stocks: GUJNRECOKE and TATASTEEL

TataSteel:
Cup and Handle Breakout
CMP; 604
SL: 553
Price Target: 738

Guj NRE Coke:
Gives Break out of Inverted HnS

Price Target 95
CMP: 73.75
SL: 64

The stock has broken out of Weekly pivots (R2: 72.43), and immediate resistance at 75.10 been monthly R1.

Chart:

PIVOTS:

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Stock Ideas: ZEEL, SUZLON

ZEEL: Zee Limited
Flag Breakout:

05-Nov-09	225
17-Nov-09	274
Distance	49
Consolidation:
Start	18-Nov-09
End	21-Dec-09
BO Day	21-Dec-09
CMP	267
Tgt	310
SL	251

 Today Volume was also higher than last 24 days

Pivot Points

SUZLON: Continues in Upward Trajectory: CMP: 84.25

Suzlon is going great guns. The stock has broken out of its downward channel, and there is rather falling complex sort of HnS pattern on the chart, which has 110+ target on stock. Today stock made high at daily 89 SMA level, and it is at major EMA contraction zone. The 50 day SMA is at 76.909

I am long in this stock since price of Rs. 79, now SL moved to 79. Pivot Points on chart

Disclaimer:

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COPPER: HnS in motion

Copper Chart attached:

CMP: $310.75
Below $309, target $298

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INFY: Initiating Short

Initiating Infy short: short at 2509 SL 2527

Time: 14:20
30 MIn chanel break down

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RELIANCE: Follow on today's Price action

Yesterday i said, on short term basis, a bounce cannot be ruled out on Reliance, i guess today was the day RIL Analysis. The stock had fallen sharply.

Attaching intraday chart, showing Reliance Channel movement.

Pivot Points for RIL

Levels	Monthly	Weekly
R2	1237.69	1111.22
R1	1150.59	1059.43
P	1025.86	1032.2
S1	938.76	980.43
S2	814.03	953.22

Watch these levels for support and resistance. Weekly and monthly are stretched, daily would provide good supports for now..

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DISHTV

DISHTV:
Today Dishtv made a high touching the 89 SMA at 42.67. The stock has broken its rising trendline starting from 3 Nov 2009 to 27 Nov 2009, which got broken on 15 Dec 2009.

DISHTV: EOD CHART Closeup:

However, the follow-up candle on 16 Dec was major bullish candle opening at 38.9 and stock today making a high of 42.6. However, the stock has not broken the trendline and stil looks in downtrend. This stock has a major falling candle (refer long term chart) which would be difficult to break. In case that is broken, can propel the stock to newer highs.


Long term Trendline chart:

Verdict: Plannin to go long above 44, would not mind adding some units here, but small quantity..Watch the below Pivot points for support and resistance:

Levels	Monthly	Weekly
R2	53.28	43.98
R1	46.42	42.17
P	39.13	40.53
S1	32.27	38.72
S2	24.98	37.08

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Bhartiartl: Short Trade

 Bhartiartl:
On Hourly charts, today bharti artl has given a break down at Rs. 314 forming an Inverted Cup and Handle with Cup Lip at 314. I expect the stock to trade down with stop loss above the cup at a 321. Based on the distance from the Cup top to lip, the stock seems to be poised for downside of approximate 284 with possible support and resistances marked on the chart.

On EOD basis, the stock has closed below 50 SMA and is currently below all its leading moving averages. As such, it can be said that the rise from Dec start was merely an upward break after selling pressure, the stock major support at 280 to 270 zone.

A Close below that could propel a massive Head and Shoulder formation. However, there are various checks and balances for the completion of formation. But for now on EOD basis watch 280 to 275 zone. Based on intraday data analysis, the stock reaching 284 zone is highly probable.

Based on Swing indicator, the stock has today broken 5 to 9 days swing. A close below 309.05, could lead to a 10 days swing break.

Verdict: Short
Current trailing SL 313
The black channel on Hourly chart hold for downtrend, break above that could also lead to change in position.

Following are basic Support and Resistance levels to be watched for Bharti for current week and current month.

Pivots	Monthly	Weekly
S2	246.00	302.75
S1	273.00	310.00
Pivot	299.50	322.45
R1	326.00	329.70
R2	352.50	342.15

 S: denotes Support, R denotes Resistance

Disclaimer: These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
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NIFTY: Short Term Analysis

 Nifty Intraday:

Nifty EOD:

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Reliance Industries Limited

Attaching here is Reliance Industries Chart

Possible short term bounce, nothin on Hourly charts. But on Daily Charts, stock is poised for downside. I would not rule out a short term bounce, but stock can reach to 765 zone.

Attaching Wave count based chart.

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Follow up on "M&M Mega Bear" Post

This is a follow-up on post on M&M Mega Bear Post by me.

On 10 Nov at a price of 1002, i thought we have seen a top on M&M, as I thought that maybe we have completed wave e of Wave C for M&M. However, the stock has gone on to make a Rising Wedge (or lets say an Ending Daigonal) in wave e itself making a high of 1100 on 2nd Dec and trending sideways in zone of 1100 to 1050.

A look at Weekly charts suggest 5 continuous Doji or Small Body candles in same range. Based on my current wave count, I still believe that M&M is in topping out structure. I do would like to say, that i donot wish to force a Bearish implication, however takin into account inability to move forward, after reaching previous top followed by Negative Divergence on RSI and a possible 5 wave up Rising Wedge, i expect the stock to correct in near term.

Weekly Chart:

On Daily Charts:

Old M&M Chart

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My Musings with Bank Stocks: Calling the TOP !!!

I have this specific love / hate relationship with Banks. Actually i have been once wrong with banks, so i have continual efforts to be perfect in bank. So here I am presenting my analysis on Banks.

Synopsys: I believe banks are poised for short and medium term correction. I have mega bearish on SBIN the main bellwether of banks and major contributor to Bank Nifty. I believe SBIN is in FLAT structure (Elliott Wave Theory) and have complete Wave A:3-Down (from 2007 to Mar 2009) and  Wave B:3-Up (from Mar 09 to Dec 10) and is poised for Wave C:5 Down and possibly can reach lows of 1000. The Current price is 2145. Similarly i believe Bank Nifty shall follow suit.

ALL COMMENTS POSTED ON CHARTS


Chart attached : Bank Nifty, State Bank of India, HDFC Bank, IDBI, ICICI Bank, Oriental Bank

State Bank of India: EOD Long Term Chart

 SBIN Intraday Hourly Chart:

 Bank Nifty

 HDFC Bank

 

IDBI

Oreintal Bank

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. Take you own trading decisions. These my views based on my studies. Do your own study and consult your own advisor. Use stop loss or be screwed. We are all students

BANK NIFTY

Attached here with is the Bank nifty chart.

Banknifty is in massive consolidation, which can turn out to be very well an extended 5 on upside it close above 9350 on hourly basis. The flag itself can propel banknifty by ard 1000 points up.

Similarly on the downside, a Break of trendline could put in place Corrective Count on Bank Nifty and will be needed to be analyzed on EOD basis. As of now trend zone seems to be 9350 on top and Trendline (A) at the Bottom.

Check the attached Chart.

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GOLD

GOLD














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I need to visit my previous posts and put a follow-up action. However, will do it later..

As of now, i am posting possible scenarios for Nifty.

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CNXIT and INFOSYS

CNXIT along with Infy and HCLTECH added. Both Infy and HCLtech are showing DOuble top. In case of double top, i woould be short with stop loss above the zone of Double top. Its just me no advice nothing..









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Bear Points: The Auto Sector

In this post i shall put forth my views on Auto sector, the champion of recent rally.

Lets try and put forth things
1. Maruti : Chart has Major Top Head and Shoulder
2. M&M : A Beautiful Ending Daigonal in place
3. TataMotors: Still Strong up, infact has made a Flag formation and is up. Today's candle is a spinning top at the top, if it has to be Bearish is has to be followed by Bear candle, but nothing major on chart for now.
4. Bajaj Auto: Moving up in channel precariously poised at the edge of channel, one push down and that does it.. :)


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M&M Mega Bear

M&M Mega Bear
Weekly chart of M&M for clear double top formation.
Daily Chart for Ending daigonal structure. Stock can see previous low..

Vivek



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Squiggles for 1 min chart of Nifty Dated 6th Nov 2009

I am attaching the one minute chart of Nifty for the 6th November 2009.

This chart is just an academic chart to show the existence of Elliott Wave relations within even 1 minute chart.

I have not added projection, planning to do that, but even i am amazed at how the wave structures are in place even to the last squiggles.

Vivek


chart courtesy: icharts.in

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Hi all,

todays movement in Nifty adding elliott wave touch to it. And possible resistance to it.

My humble opinion considering the current down move as an Impulse structure (5 waves and keeping alternate count as double zigzag at its place): is we are in wave 2 upward, as was marked yesterday with a target zone of 4924 to 4860.

Current up move from 4608 which came to day end at 4784 is equal to A, marked in Orange color retracement. Now since this is zigzag, wave C can range from been equal to A to 1.618 of A. I have marked possible resistances on chart.

As per Elliott Wave principle book, wave 2 can retrace more than 61.8% as well, so if current action stops and we continue to trend upward, it would have higher targets which could also be 5033 zone. However, no banking on that for the moment.

Tomorrow's price action shall help understand the further course of action.

Now, just on broader basis, lets the current upmove end where it has to end. Currently i am assuming previous high or 5033 won't be taken out. Now first fall from 5167 to 4530 was 637 points. Currently we are in B which is yet to end. This down move can either be a zig zag of Wave 1 or a larger 5 wave impulse down.
Assuming, a structure of ZigZag is 5-3-5 wave, thus first leg will be of 5 wave, second of 3 waves and last of 5 waves. Based on the above structure, the wave C can be equal to A and can extend to 1.618 of A, in that case we can have a down move ranging from 637 to 1030 points from where wave B ends.


There is alternate scenario, but will check on that and then get back.

Edit: There is also a possibility that current upmove has ended, but i am not a believer in that since, 1 min chart shows no topping out structure. So lets see for tomorrow..





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Possible alternative count on Nifty

Possible alternative count on Nifty


These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students

Coming soon again...

Coming soon again...





These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students