Thursday, November 5, 2009
todays movement in Nifty adding elliott wave touch to it. And possible resistance to it.
My humble opinion considering the current down move as an Impulse structure (5 waves and keeping alternate count as double zigzag at its place): is we are in wave 2 upward, as was marked yesterday with a target zone of 4924 to 4860.
Current up move from 4608 which came to day end at 4784 is equal to A, marked in Orange color retracement. Now since this is zigzag, wave C can range from been equal to A to 1.618 of A. I have marked possible resistances on chart.
As per Elliott Wave principle book, wave 2 can retrace more than 61.8% as well, so if current action stops and we continue to trend upward, it would have higher targets which could also be 5033 zone. However, no banking on that for the moment.
Tomorrow's price action shall help understand the further course of action.
Now, just on broader basis, lets the current upmove end where it has to end. Currently i am assuming previous high or 5033 won't be taken out. Now first fall from 5167 to 4530 was 637 points. Currently we are in B which is yet to end. This down move can either be a zig zag of Wave 1 or a larger 5 wave impulse down.
Assuming, a structure of ZigZag is 5-3-5 wave, thus first leg will be of 5 wave, second of 3 waves and last of 5 waves. Based on the above structure, the wave C can be equal to A and can extend to 1.618 of A, in that case we can have a down move ranging from 637 to 1030 points from where wave B ends.
There is alternate scenario, but will check on that and then get back.
Edit: There is also a possibility that current upmove has ended, but i am not a believer in that since, 1 min chart shows no topping out structure. So lets see for tomorrow..
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students