Nifty Update 30th Apr Elliott Wave Count

Nifty Wave Count:

Outlook: Bearish: Yesterday's target of 5279 was achieved. While Tatasteel SL got hit.

Wil post a detailed post. This is count i see to play out for now.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Nifty Intrraday update: dt 29 Apr

Cup and handle on Nifty.
Lip of cup is 5240/
Sub 5240 SL: 5231 Target 5280

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Tatasteel : Update 29 Apr

refer tatasteel chart for Comments:

Tatasteel above 637 can do 646 - 652

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Nifty Intraday Update: dated 23 Apr 2010

Intraday update:

Nifty Hourly charts is at cross roads:

Today's price action seems to form an Inside day and price action with break outside the yesterday's EOD candle range shall be High of 5341 and low of 5217.

60 Minute Chart:
a. Triangle with max with of 90 points:
The todays inside bar, is making a triangle formation on the Sixty minute chart. Any break on outside of triangle, can lead to thrusting action outside triangle and Nifty is expected to travel 'the maximum width of triangle' = 5340 - 5233 which translated to roughly 90 points. So either break of line A or Line B, Nifty can do 90 points. (ref 60 min chart)


There is also possible Inverted head and shoulder type of formation. The NECKLINE, can also a major upside resistance, and break out of this would set for new highs, possibly (5350 - 5160) 190 points from point of breakout / neckline. Assuming breakout at 5330, it would translate to 5520, very which approx 80% retracement of the down move, and possibly wave e of this leg.

Wave Count on Nifty

The following chart shows, the yellow count as primary count. I was thinking at 5400 could be the peak of Ending Daigonal, but i decided to forget one rule on ED, that the 'e' wave or '5' wave of ED always overshoots the channel, in that case, we could see nifty at 5500.

However, break of 5160, could push nifty into wave iii down.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Crude Oil : Technical Analysis dated: 21 Apr 2010

It appears that the crude oil has reached a tipping point in prices. The $87.5, seems to be an intermediate top for crude prices. There is possibly an Ending Daigonal to Wolfe Wave sort of structure for crude oil. I expect crude oil come down but with a stop loss of $87. The current price of crude oil is $83.85.


The immediate for crude oil is now $80, where the price had settled for around 10 to 15 days. A break of this level can result in a small rebound again to test this price of $80.

I am under the impression that the following prices shall be target level for the crude oil:

Target 1: $ 70

Target 2: $65

Target 3: $58

All targets are valid with a stop loss of $ 87 for the current price of $83.85.

 
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students

Nifty Wave Count dated 19 nov 2010

Nifty Wave Count:

Primary outlook bearish:
The yellow and the blue count are alternate counts are both bearish.

It would be hasty on my part to say Primary Wave B/2 is over for Indian market.

For now i am watching price action.
Following is my EOD wave count:

 This is a longer term wave count.

Zeroing on closer look:

5245 is the most important resistance for the market on the upside:
1. 5245 is where wave (iv) of previous rising wave 5 ended.
2. 5245 is where wave (iii) of 3 of the down move ended
3. 5245 is 38.2% retracement of wave 3
4. If the rise from wave 5162 is assumed as wave (a) of wave 4, then at 5245 / 5250 wave (c) would equate wave (a) and at wave (iv) of 3, the wave (c) would be 1.618 of wave (a)
5. 5245 is the gap zone so move above that zone would be resisted

Support at 5162: On EOD basis, 5162 is 55 EMA, which will provide good support for upmove, however a closing below this would be very bearish.
and ema 34 is at 5215 is can provide upward resistance. 

On a short term basis, a bounce is probable which can take nifty to 5245 - 5290 levels as well. Break of 55 EMA would result in further sell off.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students

Metal Focus: Copper, STER, SAIL, JSW

In the following post discuss charts with focus on metals.

Firstly, the major metal chart:
1. Copper:
Copper is making divergence of chart. It would be hasty to call a top on copper, but a short tern rising trendline (1) is been broken.  However, line (2) is a major support line. Sub 340, major bearishness shall creep in the commodity. As of now, i see, copper making a topping structure. I am not able to fix up wave count, but would advise caution over longs in copper.

Follwing is EOD chart of Copper:

Coming down to metal stocks:

The following stocks are focussed on:
1. Sterlite
2. SAIL
3. JSW Steel

Sterlite (CMP 837)
The stocks seems to have completed wave 2 upside and is poised for downside of wave 3 been in the range of Rs. 560.

Have posted comments on chart. For any short, i would consider a stop loss of 871. But, until new high is made on Sterlite, i would have a bearish outlook on Sterlite.

Plus, with copper making or been in a topping process, the stock is poised for major downside.


2. SAIL:

Following chart of SAIL is pretty self explanatory. I have posted my commnets.

On EOD basis the stock is bearish. On intraday basis, the stock can give bit of upside.

EOD Bearish target: 150 Current price 228

Intraday short of bull case: target 239

Bear case, target 214

Refer chart for comments:

EOD SAIL

SAIL Intrday 60 min chart:

JSW Steel (cmp: 1288)
JSW Steel is a gravity defying stock. i would say there is a major rising wedge on stock.
Breaking FW(2) line wil be bearish for the stock with Price target in range of Rs. 600. I would not say it will break in this week or not. But, if FW (2) breaks, then targets of Rs. 600 are possible.


JSW Weekly chart:

Disclaimer: The above is my analysis of stocks and not any recommendation. These are my studies and based on which i take my own trading decisions, Nothing above should be construed as trading advice.
Use your own stoploss, protect ur capital else u r screwed.

Restarting Blog Posts: Nifty Weekly & Daily Chart

 Hi Friends,

Thanks for the support and well there was loads of work and i was bit lazy to update charts, and could not trade as well..

Leaving apart that, i am restarting the posts.

I am now posting below the weekly chart of Nifty and EOD chart of Nifty (both charts are for 1month continuous futures_courtesy icharts.in).

The following table would summarize the entire price action of nifty from the bottom.

Following is the Weekly chart of nifty, and it is pretty clear from the chart that trendline 1 and resistance line 1 are major hindarances for upmove. Nifty (and all world markets) have run more, well blame it in GS for that, but thats some thing else.

Coming to Nifty weekly chart, the important levels to watch for are placed and a possible wedgish formation is there. Plus, the weekly red candle has broken rising trendline from 4667.

Following is weekly chart:

 Following is table of major points to watch out for based on EMAs, SMAs and BB ranges.

Now, the highlight post: Nifty Major Ending Daigonal.

The weekly charts suggests a major downside possible. On weekly charts, based on EW, is see a pattern likely resembling Ending Daigonal (ED) on verge of completion. Yes, ED wave e can overshoot the trendline, so, i would not be surprise for a high of 5500 on NF (80% retracement). But, having said that, major downsides are open for now.


For now not writing anything for trading, as i am still working on post for stocks.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students