Apologies to all readers, and also apologies to myself. Was busy with personal issues could not update the blog.. Will be restarting it.
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Monday, January 18, 2010
Naukri.com: recession over..
I got a mail from naukri.com with the following message..
So, wonder if we were really in recession. anyways, i thought is worth mention. take ur call. BTW, here is Nankri.com (Infoedge stock chart from Jan 2007 top)
Vivek
So, wonder if we were really in recession. anyways, i thought is worth mention. take ur call. BTW, here is Nankri.com (Infoedge stock chart from Jan 2007 top)
Vivek
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Petronet: Major Head and Shoulders
Major Inverted Head and Shoulder takes place, today's candle action. The stock has now reached 82. Like my friend Mayur says, this one has ran up up like a "Fox Terrier" from Rs. 60 to Rs. 82. This looks a very text book Inv HnS, the with target of Rs. 50 plus from 80 to reach a target of Rs. 130.
The SL can be Rs. 70.
This pattern is big, but donot know abt its success. It needs to be watched whether this wull work of be a Failure pattern. In case of failure, then it will major disaster for stock.
The SL can be Rs. 70.
This pattern is big, but donot know abt its success. It needs to be watched whether this wull work of be a Failure pattern. In case of failure, then it will major disaster for stock.
Nifty : Intraday Update
I am aware of posting a bullish outlook on metals..
btw, nifty looks having resistance at 5280 5260 zone.
failure to go above 5280, could lead to5150. Anvpe 5280, Cup and Handle target of 5300+ to 5400+ remain
btw, nifty looks having resistance at 5280 5260 zone.
failure to go above 5280, could lead to5150. Anvpe 5280, Cup and Handle target of 5300+ to 5400+ remain
Metals: Still a Time To Shine
The Wave View: I am labelling the wave structure under ABC scenario for now, since the move is more sideways rather than impulsive.
I consider TATASTEEL to be in wave Y of Double Combination, having its internals as ZigZag, with A completing 5 waves at Oct 2009 at e:585, and now moving in wave C.
Under one of my count, I consider to be making an Extended wave C / 3 where, where are completing wave (iv) on 13 jan 2010, thus moving t wave (v) which can reach to Rs. 700. That would complete wave c / 3 and then one small blip to Rs. 660 levels to complete wave d / 4 and move higher to Rs. 730 to 750. Now, I am giving very broad levels, since, market tends to do its own rather than mine :)
However, considering this is not an Extended Wave for wave c / 3 then we are ready to move last leg been wave e. This is also plausible, since considering that fact that Wave A in wave Y did not have such extention. In that case we could then have a high in the range of Rs. 700 to 720.
Tatasteel:
SAIL:
Intraday Bouce: Inverted Head and Shoulde - Time Frame 30 minutes
I was rather bearish on SAIL based on my post SAIL: Cup and Handle however, this pattern has been voilated, and there is an Inverted Head & Shoulder. Based on inverse Head and Shoulder the target of stock works out to 250. The current price is Rs. 242 and neckline is Rs. 240. For any one initiation long position, the stop loss can be Rs. 237. The risk:reward ratio is not that favourable, however, i woul not rule out, the stock going more than Rs. 250 with max of Rs. 255 is possible. The range of Rs. 244-246 seems a good resistance for stock.
Chart attached with levels:
STER:
The wave structure, still suggest good upside, with support still held on trendline 1, which connects all major wave point lows and can target trendline 2 which is connecting major wave top. As long as trendline 1 is held on closing basis, i would expect the stock to reach trendline 2 on upside with targets of Rs. 1000 from current price of Rs. 826. The stop loss would be difficult to tell, one could have it as breach of Trendline 1 on closing basis. Rs. 800 seems to be a good support for long. I would prefer cash long on stocks rather than derivatives. The following is wave chart attached for STER
Based on above wave count, it seems we are in last leg up. We are in a double combination structure for now, based on which as on long as trendline 1 is held, we can even move to Triple Combination. However, for now, upside seems capped only to Double Combination with high possible to Rs. 900-950-1000.
The weekly charts of Ster (similar to many stock charts) show, rising wedge, with declining volumes and negative divergence.
STER WEEKLY:
Sesagoa: Refer Chart, CMP 404, as long as trendline 2 is held, target works to 430(resistance line) - 450 - 480 (trend line 1).
If these metals stocks are for upswing, then midcap metals would do rather better i guess. Adhunik Metaliks (CMP 120 made an inverted hammer at resistance of Rs. 120, and on upside can suggest a Rectangle sort breakout which can take the stock to Rs. 160. Attached charts with possible target zones.
Bottom Line: Most of metal stocks have bounced off their rising trendline yesterday. That is rather a bullish case. As long as this trendline is held, the target shall be higher for the metal stocks, and i think we still have some shine left. If one is to look at Nifty EOD chart, there is rather alarming Cup and Handle Structure, which itsef can make Nifty reach 5400+ zone. However, i would not be rather adamant on target. Have a trailing stop loss, and trade.
The above studies are based on Technical Analysis, these are not trading ideas. One should take own decision, always use stoploss
I consider TATASTEEL to be in wave Y of Double Combination, having its internals as ZigZag, with A completing 5 waves at Oct 2009 at e:585, and now moving in wave C.
Under one of my count, I consider to be making an Extended wave C / 3 where, where are completing wave (iv) on 13 jan 2010, thus moving t wave (v) which can reach to Rs. 700. That would complete wave c / 3 and then one small blip to Rs. 660 levels to complete wave d / 4 and move higher to Rs. 730 to 750. Now, I am giving very broad levels, since, market tends to do its own rather than mine :)
However, considering this is not an Extended Wave for wave c / 3 then we are ready to move last leg been wave e. This is also plausible, since considering that fact that Wave A in wave Y did not have such extention. In that case we could then have a high in the range of Rs. 700 to 720.
Tatasteel:
SAIL:
Intraday Bouce: Inverted Head and Shoulde - Time Frame 30 minutes
I was rather bearish on SAIL based on my post SAIL: Cup and Handle however, this pattern has been voilated, and there is an Inverted Head & Shoulder. Based on inverse Head and Shoulder the target of stock works out to 250. The current price is Rs. 242 and neckline is Rs. 240. For any one initiation long position, the stop loss can be Rs. 237. The risk:reward ratio is not that favourable, however, i woul not rule out, the stock going more than Rs. 250 with max of Rs. 255 is possible. The range of Rs. 244-246 seems a good resistance for stock.
Chart attached with levels:
STER:
The wave structure, still suggest good upside, with support still held on trendline 1, which connects all major wave point lows and can target trendline 2 which is connecting major wave top. As long as trendline 1 is held on closing basis, i would expect the stock to reach trendline 2 on upside with targets of Rs. 1000 from current price of Rs. 826. The stop loss would be difficult to tell, one could have it as breach of Trendline 1 on closing basis. Rs. 800 seems to be a good support for long. I would prefer cash long on stocks rather than derivatives. The following is wave chart attached for STER
Based on above wave count, it seems we are in last leg up. We are in a double combination structure for now, based on which as on long as trendline 1 is held, we can even move to Triple Combination. However, for now, upside seems capped only to Double Combination with high possible to Rs. 900-950-1000.
The weekly charts of Ster (similar to many stock charts) show, rising wedge, with declining volumes and negative divergence.
STER WEEKLY:
Sesagoa: Refer Chart, CMP 404, as long as trendline 2 is held, target works to 430(resistance line) - 450 - 480 (trend line 1).
If these metals stocks are for upswing, then midcap metals would do rather better i guess. Adhunik Metaliks (CMP 120 made an inverted hammer at resistance of Rs. 120, and on upside can suggest a Rectangle sort breakout which can take the stock to Rs. 160. Attached charts with possible target zones.
Bottom Line: Most of metal stocks have bounced off their rising trendline yesterday. That is rather a bullish case. As long as this trendline is held, the target shall be higher for the metal stocks, and i think we still have some shine left. If one is to look at Nifty EOD chart, there is rather alarming Cup and Handle Structure, which itsef can make Nifty reach 5400+ zone. However, i would not be rather adamant on target. Have a trailing stop loss, and trade.
The above studies are based on Technical Analysis, these are not trading ideas. One should take own decision, always use stoploss
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
STCINDIA : Follow-up Post
Had posted in earlier blog dated 11 Jan 2010 about potential of STC India (CMP: Rs. 396) to reach Rs. 542 - (Rectangle Target) and Rs. 726 (flag breakout). refer earlier chart of STCINDIA.
Even after two days fall of market, and today's good rise, the stock has managed to stay up, and has today made a Doji with low at the Rectaangle / Flag trendline. Tomorrow's price action will let us know, if this is failure or actual. A long with SL of 369 would be good trade.
Attached is latest chart:
Studies based on trendline, trade your ownself, always use SL
Even after two days fall of market, and today's good rise, the stock has managed to stay up, and has today made a Doji with low at the Rectaangle / Flag trendline. Tomorrow's price action will let us know, if this is failure or actual. A long with SL of 369 would be good trade.
Attached is latest chart:
Studies based on trendline, trade your ownself, always use SL
RNRL: At Crossroads
Today, posting on RNRL. Interesting chart. Markets been all belly up and stuff, but this baby is tanking and crashing. When market goes up, this one goes sideways. When market falls, this one goes to dust.
Refer Chart for comments and target"
CMP: 72.10
Upside: 80-90-110
Break of Support line 2: could take stock to 60 and possible test Trendline 2 and Trendline 3
Refer Chart for comments and target"
CMP: 72.10
Upside: 80-90-110
Break of Support line 2: could take stock to 60 and possible test Trendline 2 and Trendline 3
This is not recommendation. Rather studies based on technical analysis. Take your own trading call. Use Stop loss..
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Yesterday's recap: of calls..
Time: 10: 51: CMP 2570 covering infy long at 2570
yesterday Infy long initiated at 2486, the stock is now at 2578
Infy long is up now 4% from recommended price of Rs. 2486. Hold with SL of today's low less two rupees.
Tatamotors:
IDEA:
idea long was intiated at 61.95, hold with sl of 59.50
yesterday Infy long initiated at 2486, the stock is now at 2578
Tatamotors:
idea long was intiated at 61.95, hold with sl of 59.50
Monday, January 11, 2010
Suzlon: Rising Wedge in Place
Back on 22nd Dec 2009: under Post: "Stock Ideas", with this Chart, expecting a price target of 116. The stock is currently at 93.50 (recommended at 84).
There seems the stock is gettin bit cautious, the stock is process of forming a rather Rising Wedge rather than a parallel upward channel. Looks like a good short candidate.The upside for now seems a bit limited. The stock has made intra high of 94.3. But, be cautious, if it reach 116 i would be happy, that been my primary target. However, currently, watch rising wedge, if breaks it can test trendline from top made at 145 in 5th June 2009
Rising Wedge:
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
There seems the stock is gettin bit cautious, the stock is process of forming a rather Rising Wedge rather than a parallel upward channel. Looks like a good short candidate.The upside for now seems a bit limited. The stock has made intra high of 94.3. But, be cautious, if it reach 116 i would be happy, that been my primary target. However, currently, watch rising wedge, if breaks it can test trendline from top made at 145 in 5th June 2009
Rising Wedge:
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
Educomp: Follow-up post.. Inverted HnS in intraday, EOD more power
Had posted on blog that Educomp is poised up move on 6th Jan 2010 mentioning a case for falling wedge / triangle breakout.
The stock is moving up today, it consolidated for three days. Intraday chart suggest buying with SL of 785 for a target of 830. The current price of 792.
The stock is moving up today, it consolidated for three days. Intraday chart suggest buying with SL of 785 for a target of 830. The current price of 792.
Stock Ideas: Relcapital; Max India
I am combining two financial companies here: relcapital and max india. both have insurance as their business among other business and both are teasing major breakout levels.
Reliance Capital : CMP 917:
Stock on important crossroad
upside: Long with SL of 850
Target 1200-1300
short trade: Short now: with SL of 930, and reverse above 930 for target of 1200.
Refer commentary on chart..
Downside reverw below 850 target sub-700 levels
Max India: CMP: 221
The stock made a high of 235, however last 4 candle have been bearish candles. Today stock is up, however sustenance of the same needs to be seen. The stock is in short term bearish-ness however, keep an eye on this stock, there is massive Inverted Head and Shoulder.
Long term bull, short term pain. Close above 235, could make a mini-Inverted HnS with target of 235.
Good support at 200, possible reversal level
Disclaimer: This is my personal view based on technical analysis. Take ur own call, this is not a financial advisory, always use stop loss.
Reliance Capital : CMP 917:
Stock on important crossroad
upside: Long with SL of 850
Target 1200-1300
short trade: Short now: with SL of 930, and reverse above 930 for target of 1200.
Refer commentary on chart..
Downside reverw below 850 target sub-700 levels
Max India: CMP: 221
The stock made a high of 235, however last 4 candle have been bearish candles. Today stock is up, however sustenance of the same needs to be seen. The stock is in short term bearish-ness however, keep an eye on this stock, there is massive Inverted Head and Shoulder.
Long term bull, short term pain. Close above 235, could make a mini-Inverted HnS with target of 235.
Good support at 200, possible reversal level
intraday alert: tatamotors added short
Time : 14.22
Tatamotors: below 780..tatamotors: looks like based on hourly inverted hns can reach 750 - 724..
Stop loss been 803
Time: 9:35
Infy upside breakout. CMP 2486.
Trade: Long
SL: 2445
Time: 9.39
Trades: Long IDEA (cmp: 61.95) SL 59.50
Tatamotors: below 780..tatamotors: looks like based on hourly inverted hns can reach 750 - 724..
Stop loss been 803
Time: 9:35
Infy upside breakout. CMP 2486.
Trade: Long
SL: 2445
Time: 9.39
Trades: Long IDEA (cmp: 61.95) SL 59.50
Bhartiartl, STC India
Bhartiart:
Trendline Breach: The stock has breached the rising trendline, and can be seen as an ideal short candidate. Refer chart below:
The stock has closed at 325, below its 55 EMA @ 327.01, with EMA 5 @ 326 & EMA 13 @ 325. The next immediate EMA support is at EMA 34 @ 321.78. The stock is still weak since it is below its 89 day SMA. On weekly basis, the stock is below its 13 Week EMA which stands at 328, while all other EMAs are stacks between 350 to 365. The 5 week EMA is now at 322.53.
Bhart Artl : Chart 1
The stock on longer terms charts is makingan in Head Shoulders pattern with neckline at 275. A breach of neckline could propel the stock to a plunge to Rs. 145 level.
Bhartiartl : Chart 2 : HnS possible
STC India:
STCINDIA (nse ticker) has given an upward breakout. The stock based on Rectangular pattern breakout can reach 542 and based on Bullish Flag Breakout can reach 726. The stop loss for this Long trade shall be Rs. 380 zone.
STCINDIA: Chart 3 : Rectangle BO / Flag / Inv HnS
Trendline Breach: The stock has breached the rising trendline, and can be seen as an ideal short candidate. Refer chart below:
The stock has closed at 325, below its 55 EMA @ 327.01, with EMA 5 @ 326 & EMA 13 @ 325. The next immediate EMA support is at EMA 34 @ 321.78. The stock is still weak since it is below its 89 day SMA. On weekly basis, the stock is below its 13 Week EMA which stands at 328, while all other EMAs are stacks between 350 to 365. The 5 week EMA is now at 322.53.
Bhart Artl : Chart 1
Bhartiartl : Chart 2 : HnS possible
STC India:
STCINDIA: Chart 3 : Rectangle BO / Flag / Inv HnS
Saturday, January 9, 2010
NSEIT: A Top in Place or just a little bit more before the tumble..
NSEIT:
NSE IT: has had a stellar rally from the bottom made in Mar 2009 to current 5923. Since the rally has been parallel the structure has been a corrective type rather than an implusive one. The index has made a top in y2K rally, so i am considering all charts as a corrective pattern rather than impulsive one.
Wave Strucuture: The Index is in WXYXZ, where we are in process of making a Final Z Top, thus making IT index ready for a PLUNGE. Max i think on the upside we may as well see 6100 to 6200 zone, however that would occur, where the Index decides to make an Ending Daigonal for Wave Z. Currently, the wave Z seems to be a ZigZag formation ending with Three Black Soldiers.
Daily Chart Wave Count Comment:
Ideally, a top would be good with Infy results coming out makin it a Blow-Off top wave "e", been a proper Ending Daigonal for wave "Z" Top. This is a typical Triple Combination with:
(1) W been a Zig Zag,
(2) wave Y exhaustion with another double combination,
1) with Wave "w" zigzag,
2) "x" small triangle,
3) wave "y" been a triangle "abcde". As we know about triangles, "triangles generally appear in wave prior to last actionary wave. As such, it has occured in wave "y" of wave Y.
Now, we are in last leg of upside move for this Index (all IT shares). Currently, the rising X'-b line has been breaches; and on daily charts we see a "Three Black Soldiers" formation. This is proper bearish structure and can suggests a top in place. Plus, on weekly charts, the Insehas made an "Evening Star" candle pattern with surging Volumes.
The Fall from Jan 2008 Wave Count on IT Index:
The rise from Mart 2009 Lows Detailed wave Count:
Weekly Chart: If we look at Weekly chart, there is a Double Top structure, based on which one can be short on Index with Stop Loss of 6000 and target of 3900 (~50% of height from Mar 09 Low of 1992 to Jan 2010 high of 5923). The weekly charts suggest a medium term top in place.
Swing Commentary: Based on Swing Break status (employed by the Turtle Traders and promoted in india by KPL of vfmdirect.co.in). I have analyzed the weekly swing status of NSEIT and observed that the rally was so strong that the lowest low the stock ever maintained was 3 weeks. Meaning since the uptrend has started, the Index has not even fallen to breach the lowest low made in preceding low.
"3 Week Swing Status": The Rally in NSEIT has been so strong, that on weekly charts, the stock had given a Three Week Swing Buy on week ended 20th Mar 2009 at close of 2229.35 from where it has rallied to 5923. As of now, it has not given a sell on 3-Week Swing Basis, which stands at this week's low of 5599.30.
"2 Week Swing Status": Based on two weeks swing, the Index has given a Sell signal. Previously, the stock. Check Chart 3 for Swing Break on Weekly basis.
Future scenarios:
I would not be surprised if there is a short term bounce in place. As of now, if we donot bounce back, I think we have a top that can take the IT Index to at least 4200 mark. Under a bullish scenario, a one more blow off peak cannot be ruled out, targetting 6100 zone. however, i reckon the index has lost steam, and that will only be wave "e" of final "Z" Top.
Verdict: Short with SL of 6000. The stop loss is around 400 points up. So be careful there could be an bounce day and adequately position yourself. On the upside i think 6000 to 6200 is max zone.
NSE IT: has had a stellar rally from the bottom made in Mar 2009 to current 5923. Since the rally has been parallel the structure has been a corrective type rather than an implusive one. The index has made a top in y2K rally, so i am considering all charts as a corrective pattern rather than impulsive one.
Wave Strucuture: The Index is in WXYXZ, where we are in process of making a Final Z Top, thus making IT index ready for a PLUNGE. Max i think on the upside we may as well see 6100 to 6200 zone, however that would occur, where the Index decides to make an Ending Daigonal for Wave Z. Currently, the wave Z seems to be a ZigZag formation ending with Three Black Soldiers.
Daily Chart Wave Count Comment:
Ideally, a top would be good with Infy results coming out makin it a Blow-Off top wave "e", been a proper Ending Daigonal for wave "Z" Top. This is a typical Triple Combination with:
(1) W been a Zig Zag,
(2) wave Y exhaustion with another double combination,
1) with Wave "w" zigzag,
2) "x" small triangle,
3) wave "y" been a triangle "abcde". As we know about triangles, "triangles generally appear in wave prior to last actionary wave. As such, it has occured in wave "y" of wave Y.
Now, we are in last leg of upside move for this Index (all IT shares). Currently, the rising X'-b line has been breaches; and on daily charts we see a "Three Black Soldiers" formation. This is proper bearish structure and can suggests a top in place. Plus, on weekly charts, the Insehas made an "Evening Star" candle pattern with surging Volumes.
The Fall from Jan 2008 Wave Count on IT Index:
The rise from Mart 2009 Lows Detailed wave Count:
Weekly Chart: If we look at Weekly chart, there is a Double Top structure, based on which one can be short on Index with Stop Loss of 6000 and target of 3900 (~50% of height from Mar 09 Low of 1992 to Jan 2010 high of 5923). The weekly charts suggest a medium term top in place.
"3 Week Swing Status": The Rally in NSEIT has been so strong, that on weekly charts, the stock had given a Three Week Swing Buy on week ended 20th Mar 2009 at close of 2229.35 from where it has rallied to 5923. As of now, it has not given a sell on 3-Week Swing Basis, which stands at this week's low of 5599.30.
"2 Week Swing Status": Based on two weeks swing, the Index has given a Sell signal. Previously, the stock. Check Chart 3 for Swing Break on Weekly basis.
Future scenarios:
I would not be surprised if there is a short term bounce in place. As of now, if we donot bounce back, I think we have a top that can take the IT Index to at least 4200 mark. Under a bullish scenario, a one more blow off peak cannot be ruled out, targetting 6100 zone. however, i reckon the index has lost steam, and that will only be wave "e" of final "Z" Top.
Verdict: Short with SL of 6000. The stop loss is around 400 points up. So be careful there could be an bounce day and adequately position yourself. On the upside i think 6000 to 6200 is max zone.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Midcap galore: CINEMAX and SINTEX
Theorotically, the stock has given a triangle breakout. Based on that the stock can travel the max distance as "distance" between the width of triangle. Based on target of stock comes to 120. however, i however expect stock to reach 80+ with SL of 55.
SINTEX:
Major Bullish flag breakout. The target is like ravingly high. I expect stock to double from here. Hold with Stop loss of 265. Trail with stoploss as lowest low of past 5 days. It has broken out of major consolidation zone from June 2009.
CMP is 289, expect it to reach 335-385 zone.
This is not investment, but targets and Stop loss based on Technical Analysis.
Satyamcomp: Double Play
Satyamcomp:
Refer Comments on Chart..
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
Refer Comments on Chart..
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
NETWORK18: Cup and Handle and TV18 IPO Effect
Network 18 finally is on the Run, the stock has broke out of its falling channel on 2nd Dec 2009, but i missed it, however, the stock ran from 80 rs. to 100 then and came down and today has completed a Cup and Handle formation. I reckon the stock should run up and can reach 153 in no time, however SL shall be 85. Plus IPO of TV18 is comin so there will be rub-off on that stock as well..
Monthly Pivot is at 90.67 can be a good support for stock.
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
Monthly Pivot is at 90.67 can be a good support for stock.
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
GNFC: Is it another Havells in making???
GNFC: CMP 115.85
Long Term Bullish:
Bullish Flag Breakout on Stock. It has moved considerably up from 87 level to 115 now. However, been flag breakout, i think good for long term long with SL of 106. Unless there is change in structure, this is major bullish candidate. Plus breakout from flag was followed by volumes. Last two days Doji candles.
Resistance at 121.02: 38.2% retrace
All levels on charts 131 - 140 - 155- 163 are resistances and targets/\.
Based on Elliott Wave Structure, stock has completed wave W and X and is heading for wave Y i guess. Struture looks bearish corrective, but stock has upside potential.
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
Long Term Bullish:
Bullish Flag Breakout on Stock. It has moved considerably up from 87 level to 115 now. However, been flag breakout, i think good for long term long with SL of 106. Unless there is change in structure, this is major bullish candidate. Plus breakout from flag was followed by volumes. Last two days Doji candles.
Resistance at 121.02: 38.2% retrace
All levels on charts 131 - 140 - 155- 163 are resistances and targets/\.
Based on Elliott Wave Structure, stock has completed wave W and X and is heading for wave Y i guess. Struture looks bearish corrective, but stock has upside potential.
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Stock Picks: IDEA, DIVISLAB, EDUCOMP
Idea give breakout today. Last three days price action is a Morning Star followed by a Bullish Flag Breakout. The stock's target price works out to 67 - 70. With Stop loss of 58.50(monthly Pivot Point).
DivisLab: Long Term Pick:
Based on Long term Weekly trend, the stock can run up and make new highs.
Weekly Chart:
Intraday Chart: 30 min breakout:
The stock has been consolidating in the price from 680 to 640, even making an Inverted Head & Shoulders on 30 min charts with Neckline at 680. The current price of stock is 693 with breakout zone 680. Also, based on EOD chart, the chart has given a break to 5 Day Swing with Stop Loss now becoming 660 for long trade, while based on 10 days EOD chart the swing stop loss is 656.20.
Educomp:
Falling Wedge, Triangle Breakout on 4 jan 2010, with volumes. The stock is currently at 778.35. The target works out to 850, with low stoploss of 700, where the stock turns to Head and Shoulder structure, where below 700, can reac to Rs. 500, if turns to a successful Head and Shoulder.
1) As of now Stock has broken 10 day swing on 4th Dec with today been an Inside Day.
2) Inside day: on stock with range breakout zone been: 797.7 on upside and 765 on the downside
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
DivisLab: Long Term Pick:
Based on Long term Weekly trend, the stock can run up and make new highs.
Weekly Chart:
Intraday Chart: 30 min breakout:
The stock has been consolidating in the price from 680 to 640, even making an Inverted Head & Shoulders on 30 min charts with Neckline at 680. The current price of stock is 693 with breakout zone 680. Also, based on EOD chart, the chart has given a break to 5 Day Swing with Stop Loss now becoming 660 for long trade, while based on 10 days EOD chart the swing stop loss is 656.20.
Educomp:
Falling Wedge, Triangle Breakout on 4 jan 2010, with volumes. The stock is currently at 778.35. The target works out to 850, with low stoploss of 700, where the stock turns to Head and Shoulder structure, where below 700, can reac to Rs. 500, if turns to a successful Head and Shoulder.
1) As of now Stock has broken 10 day swing on 4th Dec with today been an Inside Day.
2) Inside day: on stock with range breakout zone been: 797.7 on upside and 765 on the downside
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
Monday, January 4, 2010
Nifty intraday chart
Nifty Rolling Continous Futures 1 month.
30 Min charts
Refer commentary on chart.
It seems we have completed major wave action on top, and are looking at downside move. I would not be surprised if we gap down tomorrow. However, there is also chance of more sideways action tomo, considering wave v of the wave C turns out to be ending daigonal. Chart posted at end showing possible Ending Daigonal Structure
Ending Daigonal Scenario Chart:
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
30 Min charts
Refer commentary on chart.
It seems we have completed major wave action on top, and are looking at downside move. I would not be surprised if we gap down tomorrow. However, there is also chance of more sideways action tomo, considering wave v of the wave C turns out to be ending daigonal. Chart posted at end showing possible Ending Daigonal Structure
Ending Daigonal Scenario Chart:
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
Sunday, January 3, 2010
Nifty Divergences
Calling the Top: Are we there yet:
Following are charts of Nifty, as of now, I believe we are in mood to go down. But, i donot want to jinx just putting in some Divergence to view and on Daily charts, how would like to have some nice gap down tomo say, then could that be a major Island Reversal. Well, dreams dreams and more dreams. Anyhow, we are saying about Divergences, and they are out there.
Check the following charts:
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
Following are charts of Nifty, as of now, I believe we are in mood to go down. But, i donot want to jinx just putting in some Divergence to view and on Daily charts, how would like to have some nice gap down tomo say, then could that be a major Island Reversal. Well, dreams dreams and more dreams. Anyhow, we are saying about Divergences, and they are out there.
Check the following charts:
On weekly charts, we see divergence in indicators along with declining volumes on rise, suggesting strength in Index momemtum is fading.
We are all students
The TOP: Are we there yet..
Today, i keep looking at charts, and i am some how led to believe are we there yet. After a splendid rally, where everyone is gung-ho about now the famed concept of stock picking after stocks have rallied for more than 100% seems a bit odd to me. At least, the way I have seen markets (charts) all straight line speed rises get punished.
There is a fort near where I stay called Sinhagad. A friend of mine asked me how much time it takes to reacht the top, to which i replied a couple of hours. He then asked me how much time will it take to come down, if I push you down.. :) Thats the moral of the story. When you reach the top, the momentum of your movement slows down. Its like hush.. man i made it to top; only to know, comin down is more quick then goin up. So now, moral of the story been the down move that shall follow shall be quick fast and the moves shall be so good, that bulls will have their heads spinning, by the time they understand where the hell they are.
Talking about socionomics or mass physcology, currently all Business Channels are endorsing an out of world 2010 and with every tom, dick harry with saying markets could rise, or fall say 10% from here or take a sideways action. But then aren't these the only moves possible on any stock markets. It seems too odd, that people paid fat cheques say, predicting market is difficult. Anyhow, coming back to where I started, mass physcology. Seeing the inherent bullishness everywhere and rumors floating like "BUY Bag Films now, stock will hit upper freezes, since Big Radio will acquire stake" are comin back.
Nifty is up 104% from Mar 2009 low of 2555 to 5200 in total 42 weeks. Of the 104%, 82% increase was made in first 13 weeks upto week-ended 12 Jun 2009; while the rest of 20% upside was achieved in remaining 29 weeks (wow!!!! 29 weeks for 20% increase). That is amazing.
Yes, there were indices that went up as well, like CNX IT, Bank Nifty, Pharma Stocks, Metal, Auto Index and Junior index. While laggards were Oil & Gas, Real Estate, Power, Infra. That brings me to think, why Infra would not perform that great in a nation starved for Infra and Power. Now now, donot talk about last one or two weeks of Increase in R-Power and NTPC. Lets just say, I am tryin to put in pieces for whether we are in Bull market or not.
So, here it goes, Assuming we are in Bull Market. So what did we have. Wave 1?? But as far as my reading of Elliott Wave goes, Bull Markets donot start with such side-ways action meaning where 69% (29 weeks of 42 weeks of upside action) of time is spent in sideways action. Anyhow, sayin we are in wave 1, lets say we corret from here, we would have a rather 61.8% retracement. Assuming 5200 is the top, then that would mean, we reaching in the zone of 3500. So maybe 5200 is top or maybe say we tread to 5300 to 5350 (upper end of rising trendline from week 12 Jun 2009, connecting Oct 2009 top and strectching ahead). So well there is chance of a blow-off top as well, say at 5350 etc. So jus putting in numbers:
1. Top at 5200: Short with SL of 5230
2. Well, we go up from here, then we could reach 5300 to 5350 levels. But if we stick to trade with trend, then i would say famous line "its not over until its over"; in that case trade with trailing stop loss. No prediction of top. When it happens then it happens.
Now, takin to account a Bearish scenario:
We I think we are in larger Wave B of larger downside. In that case boy oh boy, we are in for some downside here. I am fairly with Robert Prechter, who says US indices are in P2 wave structure and possibly shall be looking at wave P3 here onwards. Well, taking focus back to Wave B. EWP Page 81 mentions: Wave B of intermediate degree and lower show declining volume while B wave of Primary degree and higher show volumes higher than that which accompanied in the preceding Bull Market, indicating huge public participation. Well volumes are declining in markets, however, they are generally at levels in Wave 5 period from July 2007 to Jan 2008. Plus, we are seeing currently the markets are rising with continuously negative divergence of oscillators RSI, MACD on daily and weekly basis. In that case lets see wave B of very larger degree is in place, then we are looking at extremely downside targets. A longer term Sensex chart gives a better picture.
Right now bears are running helter skelter and no one is sayin of target of 3500 on nifty and lower. Trust me if this daignosis works out and we enter Wave C, then everyone had it. Anyways just to explain Wave C can do here are some words from EWP Book page 81: Declining C Waves are "usually devasting" in their destruction. They are third waves and have most of the properties of 3rd waves. It is during this period that there is virtually no place to hide except cash. Well, that been the case, tighten your seat belts. :)
Third case: Sideways action, Well, that seems a bit implausible considering the fact we are in sideways actions for like 29 weeks now and more so from Oct 2009. In fact from Nov onwards, where market went up, volumes are sliding, indicating strenght loosing in index (Nifty), so we have certain stocks goin off the roof while the rest languishing. That is generally not the case in BUll markets i presume. So, frankly I am not much of an advocate of the whole side ways theory.
Concluding, I feel that the we are at the top of mountain and ready to be pushed down or maybe jus need to climb a tree at the top. Either of the case, we are gettin ready for a plunge. I have not put in any charts now, cause its more of commentary. Still bottom line is we are at top and looking for a serious plunge. Bears come out, time to kill :)
Vivek
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
There is a fort near where I stay called Sinhagad. A friend of mine asked me how much time it takes to reacht the top, to which i replied a couple of hours. He then asked me how much time will it take to come down, if I push you down.. :) Thats the moral of the story. When you reach the top, the momentum of your movement slows down. Its like hush.. man i made it to top; only to know, comin down is more quick then goin up. So now, moral of the story been the down move that shall follow shall be quick fast and the moves shall be so good, that bulls will have their heads spinning, by the time they understand where the hell they are.
Talking about socionomics or mass physcology, currently all Business Channels are endorsing an out of world 2010 and with every tom, dick harry with saying markets could rise, or fall say 10% from here or take a sideways action. But then aren't these the only moves possible on any stock markets. It seems too odd, that people paid fat cheques say, predicting market is difficult. Anyhow, coming back to where I started, mass physcology. Seeing the inherent bullishness everywhere and rumors floating like "BUY Bag Films now, stock will hit upper freezes, since Big Radio will acquire stake" are comin back.
Nifty is up 104% from Mar 2009 low of 2555 to 5200 in total 42 weeks. Of the 104%, 82% increase was made in first 13 weeks upto week-ended 12 Jun 2009; while the rest of 20% upside was achieved in remaining 29 weeks (wow!!!! 29 weeks for 20% increase). That is amazing.
Yes, there were indices that went up as well, like CNX IT, Bank Nifty, Pharma Stocks, Metal, Auto Index and Junior index. While laggards were Oil & Gas, Real Estate, Power, Infra. That brings me to think, why Infra would not perform that great in a nation starved for Infra and Power. Now now, donot talk about last one or two weeks of Increase in R-Power and NTPC. Lets just say, I am tryin to put in pieces for whether we are in Bull market or not.
So, here it goes, Assuming we are in Bull Market. So what did we have. Wave 1?? But as far as my reading of Elliott Wave goes, Bull Markets donot start with such side-ways action meaning where 69% (29 weeks of 42 weeks of upside action) of time is spent in sideways action. Anyhow, sayin we are in wave 1, lets say we corret from here, we would have a rather 61.8% retracement. Assuming 5200 is the top, then that would mean, we reaching in the zone of 3500. So maybe 5200 is top or maybe say we tread to 5300 to 5350 (upper end of rising trendline from week 12 Jun 2009, connecting Oct 2009 top and strectching ahead). So well there is chance of a blow-off top as well, say at 5350 etc. So jus putting in numbers:
1. Top at 5200: Short with SL of 5230
2. Well, we go up from here, then we could reach 5300 to 5350 levels. But if we stick to trade with trend, then i would say famous line "its not over until its over"; in that case trade with trailing stop loss. No prediction of top. When it happens then it happens.
Now, takin to account a Bearish scenario:
We I think we are in larger Wave B of larger downside. In that case boy oh boy, we are in for some downside here. I am fairly with Robert Prechter, who says US indices are in P2 wave structure and possibly shall be looking at wave P3 here onwards. Well, taking focus back to Wave B. EWP Page 81 mentions: Wave B of intermediate degree and lower show declining volume while B wave of Primary degree and higher show volumes higher than that which accompanied in the preceding Bull Market, indicating huge public participation. Well volumes are declining in markets, however, they are generally at levels in Wave 5 period from July 2007 to Jan 2008. Plus, we are seeing currently the markets are rising with continuously negative divergence of oscillators RSI, MACD on daily and weekly basis. In that case lets see wave B of very larger degree is in place, then we are looking at extremely downside targets. A longer term Sensex chart gives a better picture.
Right now bears are running helter skelter and no one is sayin of target of 3500 on nifty and lower. Trust me if this daignosis works out and we enter Wave C, then everyone had it. Anyways just to explain Wave C can do here are some words from EWP Book page 81: Declining C Waves are "usually devasting" in their destruction. They are third waves and have most of the properties of 3rd waves. It is during this period that there is virtually no place to hide except cash. Well, that been the case, tighten your seat belts. :)
Third case: Sideways action, Well, that seems a bit implausible considering the fact we are in sideways actions for like 29 weeks now and more so from Oct 2009. In fact from Nov onwards, where market went up, volumes are sliding, indicating strenght loosing in index (Nifty), so we have certain stocks goin off the roof while the rest languishing. That is generally not the case in BUll markets i presume. So, frankly I am not much of an advocate of the whole side ways theory.
Concluding, I feel that the we are at the top of mountain and ready to be pushed down or maybe jus need to climb a tree at the top. Either of the case, we are gettin ready for a plunge. I have not put in any charts now, cause its more of commentary. Still bottom line is we are at top and looking for a serious plunge. Bears come out, time to kill :)
Vivek
These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students
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