Sunday, March 9, 2008

NIFTY ELLIOT WAVE: dt 9th March 2008


Fig: Nifty weekly 3 years Elliot pattern

now i've used 3 years weekly chart, and i see a wave on NIFTY..

However, as i go to construct i understand we are only on wave 3 (a) or approaching end of wave 3(c), point c is yet to be found and i see that the point should be sought in a week or so. I suppose we should find support point 2 (3) i.e. 4600 or so levels and i hope we hold to that level. But again as i said i can't really if we are at 3 (a) or 3 (C). But i think we should be at 3 (c), and this is part where wave 4 shall begin, like from 4600 or 4200 which is 2 (1). So i see that the next turning. Now if we see the past 1 (a), (b) and (c) level, then point 1 (c) found support at subwave 0 (1), if we extrapolate this then i see nifty now going down to 4200 from the current level.But that is too low cause all moving averages have entered in negative croosover, cci is too oversold and any more lows would get nifty oversold on RSI, which would first time first for last 3 years, indicating buying pressure coming back to market. That means finally, we should turn up from 4600 (using basic support and resistance levels) and using the lines as per Elliot Wave then we trace teh next level as 4200, from where i reckon we will turn around in any case. But considering DOW fall on friday i guess based on that we will test 4600 this week, and move up cause based on my study of DOW on Elliot wave we in last leg i.e. c, part both on large scale i.e. 3years weekly and 2 years daily, so expect dow to move up from 11700 and at that time we move up from 4200 or 4600 whatever be the level. But the times are very crucial and u have to be patient now.

Nifty 3 year charts weekly:


Only three time have we seen Nifty enter oversold zone in CCI, and this the time that the 5 days moving avg cut the 13 and 26 days from below. And the third time is now, so if past trends are to be trusted, then nifty should start moving up, in next 2 weeks.

We will test 4600 levels or 4200 levels and then there will be either morning star or hammer at bottom of the trend.

on basic candlestick patterns we have a long bodied black candle, however the volumes are lower than that of last week, so there is a neutral stance from that side..

Considering intraday charts (20 days 15 minutes):

I see that NIfty now at 4758 should go up to 4800 on intrday basis and then turn down from there test level of 4652, that is the intraday low of the NIFTY on friday, but in mean time it should break that and go down. So maximum up NIFTY expected on intraday basis is 4800 and that can be a good shorting opportunity for NIFTY. So Nifty i expect not to go above 4800, and it has resistance at every 50 points up to 5300, making difficult to rise to desired level up, plus when we see at the elliot wave i've tried to quote, thing get difficult for immediate up turn.

Finally in conclusion:

Dow expected to go to 11700 - 11600 from where it should turn in next 2 weeks.
Nifty expected to go to 4600 - 4200 and from 4200 it will turn up.


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