Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Outlook for Nifty for next trading day i.e. 7th March 2008

Nifty Outlook

Daily Charts:
We are in double bottom range now, as said yesterday that ofty should not and would not break 4850, and so i think today it hit a low 4847, but could not sustain go down and recovered from 4850, but the candle today continues to be Harami candle indicating on daily charts a continuation pattern of the fall, but i expect that to not happen. Further, now are still in CCI oversold zone with notings of -133.7, which was on 4th March 2008 as about -200, so we are staging a recovery i must say, so further downside is restricted..

Now analyzing RSI, it is normal zone and in case of any fall, to 4850 or 4800, it will immediately enter oversold zone along with CCI, and it normally observed that these are huge buying opportunities and markets should recover from there..

Moving averages still in negative zone, but if on next trading day we have an upmove then i expect moving averages to make a positive crossover, in that case there will be huge buying opportunity, but untill i get more positive signals on daily charts, no big recommendations

Finally seeing the Daily charts, i expect the markets to not move down maybe consolidate at this level and start moving up

Now Intraday Charts:

On 15 minutes charts has made a positive Moving Average crossover: Further the 5-13-26 days moving average have crossed, 5 days cut 13 days at 4887 and 13 days have crossed on last candle to 26 days and if this is sustained by positive market up moves for 1st one hour then we must expect fireworks from NIFTY..

If we look at the 20 days - 15 minutes charts, we can clearly see a double bottom made at 4820 to 4850, so the chances of markets going down are low..

However the markets will not immediately move up, they will go up for maybe first 15 minutes to 4981 or so (not exactly to that) then CCI getting strecthed to huge over-bought levels, causing a fall upto 4950, cause once we break up 4950 and move up and stay there then that level which is already a resistance becomes a support level.

Negative view:
Now 4950 can act as a double top level and resistance, so breakin that level and staying above is necessary.. so if we don't break that level and start moving down, then maybe one can play for 50 to 100 points down making nifty come to 4900 then to 4850, but not less than that, cause 4850 is becoming a good support on intraday charts

So in conclusion:
I expect the markets to move up for 1st 15 minutes to 30 inutes then consolidate at 4950, maybe go down to 4930 and move back up. So these levels should be watched,

But once we break up 4950 and keep above then next level should be somewhere at 5030, but not sucha smooth ride.

So lets see what happens again with the DOW, i'll post about DOW as well..


This analysis is based on technical analysis and no responsibility shall be taken for any losses or profits borne by reader..
we are all students

No comments: