Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Outlook for market on 5th March 2008


So, as i said yesterday, NIFTY will test 4850, and it did move up from 4820, that where the 'DOUBLE BOTTOM' occurred.
Certain observations from charts:

    1. Daily charts for 6 months shows that, we have tested today i.e. 4th March 2008, the level of 4800 to 4820 (its more clear on intraday charts), that means the market have found support at this level. So, if tomorrow we close on positive territory and we hold on to the level of 4850 and 4800, then next 2 days markets must turn up..
    2. Plus, we have reached oversold positions on CCI and RSI, so we must expect some up move from this level tomorrow onwards, since 4850-4800 is huge support i really don't expect the markets to break it...
    3. Further, taking into account worst case scenarios, then following can happen, we break 4800, then next powerful support is at 4600, and i don't think it would break, but then even in more negative scenario, maybe 4600 gets broken then we find support at 4000, but i don't think we'll go so far down, cause nothing has fundamentally shifted in India
    4. Further, since commodity prices are rising so voraciously, then the inflation level would rise, and RBI would be at its wits end to control the inflation, since prices continue to rise. If you people see charts of CHANA, then you'll realize whats going on there (but commodities we'll discuss in commdoities outlook section

  2. On INTRADAY charts:
    1. On intraday 60 minutes charts we made 2 hammers at level 4850, meaning not breaking 4850 on hourly charts, plus we are still oversold on CCI and RSI
    2. Further as soon as we made those hammers, we entered a positive zone registering a positive crossover on Slow Stochastic
    3. So i expect the markets to consolidate tomorrow, depending on behavior of DOW and Asian indices, in case we have a positive on both then we must expect us to move as well, i know its a but general and not based on sound technical analysis, but markets are guided by psychology and "greed & fear", lets see of tomorrow.
    4. Checking 30 minutes charts, we see a a bit downside left in market and we should again test the level of 4820 or 4850 tomorrow for first 30 minutes or so, cause CCI shows down move back in oversold, and if we do test again 4850 or 4820, then we are oversold on CCI, giving one more reason for further up-move.
    5. Now, 15 minutes chart shows hammer, so i expect market should rise tomorrow onwards.

In conclusion, i expect the markets to start settling from tomorrow i.e. not fall and markets to rise up either tomorrow or day after tomorrow onwards.

So lets hope for the best and hope markets move up..


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