DOW JONES - Elliot Wave dt 9th March 2008

Elliot Wave Theory of Dow:


Figure (1) - 1 1 2006 to 30 6 2006




Fig 2 1 7 2006 to 31 12 2006




Figure (3) - 1 1 2007 to 30 6 2007



Figure (4) - 1 7 2007 to 31 12 2007



Figure (5) - 1 1 2008 to 7 3 2008



Figure (6) Dow 3 years daily:






When i look at the Elliot Wave of DOW and i construct one 8 wave on Dow, i see that the we are in the Eight Wave phase i.e. 5 (c), and we should find bottom at some place. Plus i reckon we shall find support at wave 1 level, depicted in chart {DOW 3 years weekly}.
Moreover when we have already reached the Oversold zone on CCI, but thats too much of temporary indicator and if the trend is to be believed now, i expect the DOW to start moving from here, cause the 8 waves should complete at support (1) wave on Elliot Wave.

Constructing the daily charts for from 1st Jan 2006 to date, we see again the existence of wave theory:

In chart one, we see first Elliot wave completing in 6 months, then after the 5 (c) of 10700, we had a massive bull run that extended to 12800, then it fell down, giving rise to point 1 on second elliot wave.Then between 12 and 19 march 2007, we had a powerful HAMMER at bottom making a low of 11900 and closing above 12000. Then the upmove continued to point 3 as on 23 Jul 2007, from where we fell from 13900 to 12550 where me made a Morning Star and moved up to 14500. The point of MOrning star was point 4. Then we moved to point no. 5 on the wave at 14150 0r 14200 level where me made a bearish engulf and we fell to 12800 where we made point (a) in the Wave theory, from where moved up to point (b) at 13700 and from there we fell down and even today we are falling to 11900 as on 7th march.

Now based on these statistics i imagine DOW to find support at 11600 and taking that support we should move up. based on this, i reckon we should fall to 11600. 7th march 2008 fall was to 11893 (11900), which is 300 points above me estimate. Now we could do anything like make a Morning star or Hammer at bottom, but it depends how DOW performs for next week, cause there are lot of things affecting the market, but if Elliot Wave is to be believed and market support as well, then i think there might be some good news coming for market.

Vivek







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The study is based on technical analysis and the author does not hold any responsibility for any profits or losses borne by the reader.
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