NIFTY ELLIOT WAVE: dt 9th March 2008

NIFTY ELLIOT WAVE:


Fig: Nifty weekly 3 years Elliot pattern


now i've used 3 years weekly chart, and i see a wave on NIFTY..

However, as i go to construct i understand we are only on wave 3 (a) or approaching end of wave 3(c), point c is yet to be found and i see that the point should be sought in a week or so. I suppose we should find support point 2 (3) i.e. 4600 or so levels and i hope we hold to that level. But again as i said i can't really if we are at 3 (a) or 3 (C). But i think we should be at 3 (c), and this is part where wave 4 shall begin, like from 4600 or 4200 which is 2 (1). So i see that the next turning. Now if we see the past 1 (a), (b) and (c) level, then point 1 (c) found support at subwave 0 (1), if we extrapolate this then i see nifty now going down to 4200 from the current level.But that is too low cause all moving averages have entered in negative croosover, cci is too oversold and any more lows would get nifty oversold on RSI, which would first time first for last 3 years, indicating buying pressure coming back to market. That means finally, we should turn up from 4600 (using basic support and resistance levels) and using the lines as per Elliot Wave then we trace teh next level as 4200, from where i reckon we will turn around in any case. But considering DOW fall on friday i guess based on that we will test 4600 this week, and move up cause based on my study of DOW on Elliot wave we in last leg i.e. c, part both on large scale i.e. 3years weekly and 2 years daily, so expect dow to move up from 11700 and at that time we move up from 4200 or 4600 whatever be the level. But the times are very crucial and u have to be patient now.


Nifty 3 year charts weekly:

Fig:



Only three time have we seen Nifty enter oversold zone in CCI, and this the time that the 5 days moving avg cut the 13 and 26 days from below. And the third time is now, so if past trends are to be trusted, then nifty should start moving up, in next 2 weeks.

We will test 4600 levels or 4200 levels and then there will be either morning star or hammer at bottom of the trend.

on basic candlestick patterns we have a long bodied black candle, however the volumes are lower than that of last week, so there is a neutral stance from that side..


Considering intraday charts (20 days 15 minutes):



I see that NIfty now at 4758 should go up to 4800 on intrday basis and then turn down from there test level of 4652, that is the intraday low of the NIFTY on friday, but in mean time it should break that and go down. So maximum up NIFTY expected on intraday basis is 4800 and that can be a good shorting opportunity for NIFTY. So Nifty i expect not to go above 4800, and it has resistance at every 50 points up to 5300, making difficult to rise to desired level up, plus when we see at the elliot wave i've tried to quote, thing get difficult for immediate up turn.


Finally in conclusion:

Dow expected to go to 11700 - 11600 from where it should turn in next 2 weeks.
Nifty expected to go to 4600 - 4200 and from 4200 it will turn up.


Vivek









These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding.
We are all students

DOW JONES - Elliot Wave dt 9th March 2008

Elliot Wave Theory of Dow:


Figure (1) - 1 1 2006 to 30 6 2006




Fig 2 1 7 2006 to 31 12 2006




Figure (3) - 1 1 2007 to 30 6 2007



Figure (4) - 1 7 2007 to 31 12 2007



Figure (5) - 1 1 2008 to 7 3 2008



Figure (6) Dow 3 years daily:






When i look at the Elliot Wave of DOW and i construct one 8 wave on Dow, i see that the we are in the Eight Wave phase i.e. 5 (c), and we should find bottom at some place. Plus i reckon we shall find support at wave 1 level, depicted in chart {DOW 3 years weekly}.
Moreover when we have already reached the Oversold zone on CCI, but thats too much of temporary indicator and if the trend is to be believed now, i expect the DOW to start moving from here, cause the 8 waves should complete at support (1) wave on Elliot Wave.

Constructing the daily charts for from 1st Jan 2006 to date, we see again the existence of wave theory:

In chart one, we see first Elliot wave completing in 6 months, then after the 5 (c) of 10700, we had a massive bull run that extended to 12800, then it fell down, giving rise to point 1 on second elliot wave.Then between 12 and 19 march 2007, we had a powerful HAMMER at bottom making a low of 11900 and closing above 12000. Then the upmove continued to point 3 as on 23 Jul 2007, from where we fell from 13900 to 12550 where me made a Morning Star and moved up to 14500. The point of MOrning star was point 4. Then we moved to point no. 5 on the wave at 14150 0r 14200 level where me made a bearish engulf and we fell to 12800 where we made point (a) in the Wave theory, from where moved up to point (b) at 13700 and from there we fell down and even today we are falling to 11900 as on 7th march.

Now based on these statistics i imagine DOW to find support at 11600 and taking that support we should move up. based on this, i reckon we should fall to 11600. 7th march 2008 fall was to 11893 (11900), which is 300 points above me estimate. Now we could do anything like make a Morning star or Hammer at bottom, but it depends how DOW performs for next week, cause there are lot of things affecting the market, but if Elliot Wave is to be believed and market support as well, then i think there might be some good news coming for market.

Vivek







Disclaimer:
The study is based on technical analysis and the author does not hold any responsibility for any profits or losses borne by the reader.
We are all student

Commodity Outlook.. dt 6th March 2008

NICKEL:

Not making double top :-)

My yesterday's post discussed the fact that nickel maybe making a doubkle top and i asked to wait for couple of days..

but yesterday's candle i.e. 5th march 2008 shouws nickel confortably closing above 1350 and today evening rate of Nickel is open: 1346.00 high: 1416.00 low: 1346.00 and LTP: 1384.00 , indicating it will comfortably move up from here, and now henceforth 1350 will act as resistance, and i expect the charts of Nickel to follow the same pattern of Natural Gas, Crude Oil (all rates are based from MCX rates)

So, maybe from now on Nickel will start moving up..


Carbon Credit (CFI):

carbon credits are approaching the previous highs of 1330 on MCX.. I expect it to break that and move up from here, cause i don't wanna come here again and comment on a possible double top, casue looking a the way commodities are rising, this one should also rise..

Copper : Gone Baby Gone...

Man, this commodity is gonna go of the roof and i must day, this is only the beginning. Price og 330 was a chance of double top (based on 6 months chart), which it broke with out any resistance.. And if u look at last 3 days candle stick pattern, then yesterday we had a bullish engulf over a previous day bearish piercing, thus indicating a furhter confirmation of an Upmove
The price presently is : open 348.20 high 353.90 low 347.60 LTP 351.75, which indicates a positive candle...

Checking an 18 month chart, we see a chance for double top at 345, which level has as well been broken and now 345 and 330 will be huge supports..

So therefore we can expect huge upmoves from here..

Silver, Gold, Crude Oil & Natural Gas:
They are all gravity defying material.. These guys keep moving up, will have to wait for down sinal if any, but as of now there is no stopping..


Zinc:
To continue moving up, resistance at 125, LTP 115.75, but i expect to keep moving up..


Vivek



The study is based on technical analysis and author does not hold any responsibility over the profits or losses borne by the reader.
We are all students..

Commodity Outlook : NICKEL

NICKEL:

Will it make a double top??

This is exactly that i am writing as of now, i am not saying double top is made or not, i am just giving a cautious outlook to nickel as a trading commodity.

Nickel has a huge resistance at 1360 and 1358.

Last two days on daily charts, nickel has hit about 1360 and come back down, yesterdays candle i.e. 4th march 2008 candle shows the market nickel making an Harami pattern, indicating continuation of up trend, however toda as well i.e. on 5th march Nickel has failed to close above 1360 and closed at 1352 (31 March contract, only near month contracts are discussed).

Furhter there are three continuous white candles prior to 4th march 2008, thus indicating a 'Three White Soldiers', patterns making the asset due for some slowdown. Now, we need to watch for tomorrow as well, in case Nickel does not move above 1360 successfully and comes down then we must expect downside on Nickerl, and possible targets in that case, i.e. if and only if Nickel makes double top will be,around Rs. 1180 in nest one month, however we need confirmations for that and probably next two days should give a better idea of what holds for nickel..

Since i don't have intraday charts of Commodities cannot specifically comment on the movement of commodities..

Anyways, brave person like me will go short on Nickel, hypothetically for now, since i don't have enough money for that, so assume now i am short on Nickel at 1352..

So lets c what we have in store for next two days..

Vivek


This transcript is not a tip or recommendation, it is purely my view based on technical analysis, and the author doesnot hold any responsibility over the profits or losses made by the reader, based on the above material published..
We are all students

Outlook for Nifty for next trading day i.e. 7th March 2008

Nifty Outlook
Daily Charts:
We are in double bottom range now, as said yesterday that ofty should not and would not break 4850, and so i think today it hit a low 4847, but could not sustain go down and recovered from 4850, but the candle today continues to be Harami candle indicating on daily charts a continuation pattern of the fall, but i expect that to not happen. Further, now are still in CCI oversold zone with notings of -133.7, which was on 4th March 2008 as about -200, so we are staging a recovery i must say, so further downside is restricted..

Now analyzing RSI, it is normal zone and in case of any fall, to 4850 or 4800, it will immediately enter oversold zone along with CCI, and it normally observed that these are huge buying opportunities and markets should recover from there..

Moving averages still in negative zone, but if on next trading day we have an upmove then i expect moving averages to make a positive crossover, in that case there will be huge buying opportunity, but untill i get more positive signals on daily charts, no big recommendations

Finally seeing the Daily charts, i expect the markets to not move down maybe consolidate at this level and start moving up


Now Intraday Charts:

On 15 minutes charts has made a positive Moving Average crossover: Further the 5-13-26 days moving average have crossed, 5 days cut 13 days at 4887 and 13 days have crossed on last candle to 26 days and if this is sustained by positive market up moves for 1st one hour then we must expect fireworks from NIFTY..

If we look at the 20 days - 15 minutes charts, we can clearly see a double bottom made at 4820 to 4850, so the chances of markets going down are low..

However the markets will not immediately move up, they will go up for maybe first 15 minutes to 4981 or so (not exactly to that) then CCI getting strecthed to huge over-bought levels, causing a fall upto 4950, cause once we break up 4950 and move up and stay there then that level which is already a resistance becomes a support level.

Negative view:
Now 4950 can act as a double top level and resistance, so breakin that level and staying above is necessary.. so if we don't break that level and start moving down, then maybe one can play for 50 to 100 points down making nifty come to 4900 then to 4850, but not less than that, cause 4850 is becoming a good support on intraday charts

So in conclusion:
I expect the markets to move up for 1st 15 minutes to 30 inutes then consolidate at 4950, maybe go down to 4930 and move back up. So these levels should be watched,

But once we break up 4950 and keep above then next level should be somewhere at 5030, but not sucha smooth ride.

So lets see what happens again with the DOW, i'll post about DOW as well..


Vivek




This analysis is based on technical analysis and no responsibility shall be taken for any losses or profits borne by reader..
Thanks,
we are all students

Outlook for market on 5th March 2008

Hi,

So, as i said yesterday, NIFTY will test 4850, and it did move up from 4820, that where the 'DOUBLE BOTTOM' occurred.
Certain observations from charts:

1. On DAILY CHARTS:
   
1. Daily charts for 6 months shows that, we have tested today i.e. 4th March 2008, the level of 4800 to 4820 (its more clear on intraday charts), that means the market have found support at this level. So, if tomorrow we close on positive territory and we hold on to the level of 4850 and 4800, then next 2 days markets must turn up..
2. Plus, we have reached oversold positions on CCI and RSI, so we must expect some up move from this level tomorrow onwards, since 4850-4800 is huge support i really don't expect the markets to break it...
   
3. Further, taking into account worst case scenarios, then following can happen, we break 4800, then next powerful support is at 4600, and i don't think it would break, but then even in more negative scenario, maybe 4600 gets broken then we find support at 4000, but i don't think we'll go so far down, cause nothing has fundamentally shifted in India
4. Further, since commodity prices are rising so voraciously, then the inflation level would rise, and RBI would be at its wits end to control the inflation, since prices continue to rise. If you people see charts of CHANA, then you'll realize whats going on there (but commodities we'll discuss in commdoities outlook section
2. 
   
3. On INTRADAY charts:
1. On intraday 60 minutes charts we made 2 hammers at level 4850, meaning not breaking 4850 on hourly charts, plus we are still oversold on CCI and RSI
2. Further as soon as we made those hammers, we entered a positive zone registering a positive crossover on Slow Stochastic
   
3. So i expect the markets to consolidate tomorrow, depending on behavior of DOW and Asian indices, in case we have a positive on both then we must expect us to move as well, i know its a but general and not based on sound technical analysis, but markets are guided by psychology and "greed & fear", lets see of tomorrow.
4. Checking 30 minutes charts, we see a a bit downside left in market and we should again test the level of 4820 or 4850 tomorrow for first 30 minutes or so, cause CCI shows down move back in oversold, and if we do test again 4850 or 4820, then we are oversold on CCI, giving one more reason for further up-move.
5. Now, 15 minutes chart shows hammer, so i expect market should rise tomorrow onwards.

In conclusion, i expect the markets to start settling from tomorrow i.e. not fall and markets to rise up either tomorrow or day after tomorrow onwards.

So lets hope for the best and hope markets move up..

Bye

Commodity Outlook 4th March 2008

Hi,

Commodities are on fire... And totally in literal sense like rocket, especially silver completely gravity defying and totally of the world.

Let me start with Gold:

Gold: there is at least no stopping in near future, but as on 3rd March 2008, if if look at daily charts, there is already "3 White Soldiers" patterns, expecting a little slowdown in the daily price move, but as of 10.39 on MCX gold has already gone to Rs. 12638, therefore the chances of gold falling or holding, i.e. not continuing in the same frenzy are low.

Silver: Silver has already made a doji, after three white soldiers, so it depends on how it closes today night on MCX..

More post on commodity tomorrow based on close on MCX..

Thx
Vivek

Hi all,

Markets look very weak for 4th March, basically the markets should fall tomorrow in morning and test 4850, which i expect it to not break, but if that is broken, then i am dead...
Anyways, on a serious note, the Nifty is terribly oversold on CCI (20 days) and RSI (14 days) and already come out of Bollinger band, indicating chances of consolidation. However, problem with Bollinger bands is that maybe Nifty will adjust back in it, but not move up, so considering it singly is not advisable, but tomorrow, if we manage to close above at or above 4850, move up from there like making a hammer on daily charts and maybe double bottom then, we must expect nifty to move up again, as there has been negative signals from Indian economy and the budget was good, so well if Dow manages to close well today, then we will see recovery tomorrow...

REL: Morning star in making??
All depends on how nifty behaves tomorrow, cause there are chances of REL making morning star, on intra day 60 minute charts are present i.e. a black candle, a doji and we need is tomorrow's first candle to be a white candle that means that REL should 1500 and at the end of first hour should close at around 1540 or so levels. So hope for the best.

IDFC: Buy, intra day 60 minutes charts shows double bottom at Rs. 178, on daily charts, it has stood at 180, thus there is huge chance of the stock turning around, target of around 195 in next 2 or 3 days.. However, there is resistance at Rs. 190, once that is broken comfortably on intra day charts, then we can expect up moves..

RIL: Getting neat the double bottom zone on Intra day charts, today closed at 2320, and go tomorrow or in a day up to lowest level of 2240, if that level is held and it turn back up, then we must expect fireworks from RIL, plus it has already become oversold on CCI (20 days) and RSI 14 days, the moving averages are shattered, but we expect some support.