Sunday, February 27, 2011

The Currency Post: Vol. 1: AUDUSD / Australian Dollar Outlook


The first leg up for AUD from 2001, when it hit the bottom of 0.5 moved to 1.0, which is nearly the double. Now, from there it sank back to 0.6, where it took support on the long term trendline support. If that trendline support is anything to believed then, all I can say it back tested the bearish stance of the AUD and moved up. While, AUD has not yet captured its all time high of 1.5 / 1.6, I would say it is just a matter of time. Why would i put up such a stance, well two major reasons 1) back testing long term trendline and then moving up is a major bullish endevaor and 2) the upmove from 2001 is rather an impulsive one. The waves are clear and the structure looks rather more impressive. Since, it has not made a new high, I will keep the count as a Primary degree A or 1 and the down fall as Primary degree B or 2 and now we are in wave 1 of III of cycle degree. Well, now if we are in an impulsive 5 wave major cycle up for AUD, then we are only seeing wave 1 of AUD now. However, in case AUD fails to go up after, then we may see wave C now.

Lets see how things pan out..

Further, one should also refer to the near term chart below, which is a weekly structure based; which clearly suggests a rather bullish outlook for AUD. On weekly chart, AUD is poised to break the triangle, which can propel it to 5th wave up. Further, waves are rather clear.

Side note: If AUD heads up, watch out for bullishness on copper and metals mined in Australia. Actually, there is a lot to write fundamentally, but due to lack of time its difficult to post everything. Lets see, going forward.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

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