Bank Nifty Weekly : Elliott Wave Analysis

In continuation with my yesterday's post, here the analysis for Bank Nifty,

The move down on the bank nifty from Nov 2010 was steep, but the waves were too inter-tangled to get an impulse down, hence I am now thinking the move down was rather an ABC-X-ABC-X-ABC (triple combination).

Here is the EOD and the Weekly chart on Bank Nifty

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

CNXITIN: Elliott Wave Analysis

The last few days move up on Nifty has reached to invalidate the older Bearish count on Nifty. Some time back, considering the strong support that Nifty has, I was open to further bullishness on Nifty going forward. This was the link and the chart. I think this is a probability and a rather strong one that we are moving in to higher trajectory.

Honestly, the one indicator I had talked about here in this post and this chart; was then suggesting that we are far too oversold and we shall be moving up. But now with the moves and the channel breakout, I am comprehending this to be true.

As I mentioned in the indicator chart, i am keeping my finger crossed. I am looking at the Index charts - CNX IT Index chart and Bank Nifty, both are suggesting we are going to move up.

Right now here is the chart for CNXITIN:

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Copper: Testing the neckline

With reference to the Copper post dated  8 Mar 2011. Copper has now moved to re-test the neckline of the head and shoulder. Today it is on the verge of competing an Evening Star on the charts.

The target continues to be INR 386
Here is the updated chart:

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Ranbaxy: A Relook - Elliott Wave Analysis

In continuation with previous post titled "India Pharma Focus"  and the Ranbaxy Chart. I think we are more or less headed to for wave v lower on Ranbaxy with today's 7% move down. Let us see if the trendlines hold.



Here is the latest update on the wave count.

Aurobindo Pharma: Elliott Wave Look

In continuation with previous post titled "India Pharma Focus"  and the Aurobindo Chart; I think we are more or less headed to wave 2 / B completion soon.

Here is the latest update on the wave count.

A closer look at AUROPHARMA: Today the stock has made an inside day.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

HIndustan Zinc - Elliott Wave Count

HINDUSTAN ZINC

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

ITC and Infosys : Elliott Wave Count

I have been rather bearish on INFY and ITC.

Here are the latest charts for Infy and ITC.

1. ITC

2. INFOSYS 

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

VIP INDUSTRIES: Elliott Wave Analysis

This one is headed to the moon. Target is ~Rs. 1000, current price is 654 (SL can be 550) this is a buy stock; not a derivative trade.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Quick Post: POTATO intraday (5 min Inv HnS)

Nice inverted HnS on Potato-MCX

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Copper: Elliott Wave and Head and Shoulder (MCX and Global)

Copper is making a rather alarming Head and Shoulder on EOD now. Adding Copper short in the Blog tracker. SHORT on COPPER (MCX / GLOBAL)

Here is the MCX chart for India traders.

Copper Daily:

Copper Weekly: The nail in the coffin; calling for a good top.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

India Pharma Focus

I have no idea what our pharma companies do.. But, it seems many are about to lose their safe haven status soon. here is a look at Glenmark, Dr Reddy, Ranbaxy, Cipla and Aurobindo Pharma

1. Glenmark Pharma

2. Dr Reddy

3. Ranbaxy

4. CIPLA

5. AUROPHARMA

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Crude Palm Oil (CPO): MCX

The CPO prices look headed up. We  are looking at a target of Rs. 660 in CPO, implying an upside of approximately 20%.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Commodities & Currencies Post: 7 Mar 2011

Here we go:

AUDUSD
EURO
GOLD
SILVER
COPPER

All notes on charts:

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Revisiting Nifty Count dated 5th March

I think this count bodes well. Based on this, we have not yet completed  wave 3 down. We are in wave iv of wave 3, full credit for this change goes to Rohit Srivastav. Thanks Rohit.


Here we with the count. 

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

The Global Model Portfolio:

Here is a model global portfolio from me.

These are US based ETFs.
The portfolio highlists:
SHORT: S&P500, Emerging Market, India
LONG: Precious metals (Gold, Silver) Energy (Crude Oil) and Agro Commodities

Lets see how it performs over a year.
This is USD 100,000 weighted portfolio; as I change global weights in assets, i shall update this one and post it on the website.


These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis dated 2 Mar 2011

Here we go with nifty wave counts.

I looking at 'wave scenario 1' for Nifty. That is what is preferred scenario. I think that Nifty can do a triangle structure as it would fit the Rule of Alternation. The wave 2 up was a sharp near 80% retracement, which I think shall need to a rather sideways action for wave 4 with a retracement of 38.2%. The 38.2% retracement is approximately 5600.

Moving on to Scenario 2: Nifty can still do a zigzag in this structure.

Alternate 2: This scenario we are looking at zigzag. Assuming wave C is equal to wave A, then we can look at 5672. As mentioned on the chart, as long as the wave are not overlapping meaning wave 4 is not entering into territory of wave 2 and wave 1, we are looking at an impulse structure down.

Alternate 3: Now, there is a rare case there is a possibility that wave 4 can enter into territory of wave 1, which is a Leading Diagonal structure.

Now, lets look at an alternate scenario, which is a rather bullish structure.
The counts marked in RED CIRCLE are larger degree, then counts roman numerals WHITE font and ORANGE squares are of inner degree and finally the orange FONT with smaller font size is more internal count. This a rather wave bullish outlook, based on which we may have started wave iii of wave 5. If this count is something that can occur, then we are looking at massive massive upside on Nifty. To put things in perspective, the wave 1 up was 1572 points and the third wave can even reach 7690.

I donot understand what can of fundamental triggers exist to justify such a move. Only, reason such upside can come is via massive fund infusion in stock market. This can possible if Ben Bernanke does a QE 3 in the US and the money finds its way to all Emerging Markets. This rise shall be somethign absolutely massive with high Precious & Base Metal prices coupled with high Agro-Commodity prices.

Here are the charts:

 Preferred Count:

Alternate: Bearish:

Alternate: Extreme Bullish

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students