Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis dated 2 Mar 2011

Here we go with nifty wave counts.

I looking at 'wave scenario 1' for Nifty. That is what is preferred scenario. I think that Nifty can do a triangle structure as it would fit the Rule of Alternation. The wave 2 up was a sharp near 80% retracement, which I think shall need to a rather sideways action for wave 4 with a retracement of 38.2%. The 38.2% retracement is approximately 5600.

Moving on to Scenario 2: Nifty can still do a zigzag in this structure.

Alternate 2: This scenario we are looking at zigzag. Assuming wave C is equal to wave A, then we can look at 5672. As mentioned on the chart, as long as the wave are not overlapping meaning wave 4 is not entering into territory of wave 2 and wave 1, we are looking at an impulse structure down.

Alternate 3: Now, there is a rare case there is a possibility that wave 4 can enter into territory of wave 1, which is a Leading Diagonal structure.

Now, lets look at an alternate scenario, which is a rather bullish structure.
The counts marked in RED CIRCLE are larger degree, then counts roman numerals WHITE font and ORANGE squares are of inner degree and finally the orange FONT with smaller font size is more internal count. This a rather wave bullish outlook, based on which we may have started wave iii of wave 5. If this count is something that can occur, then we are looking at massive massive upside on Nifty. To put things in perspective, the wave 1 up was 1572 points and the third wave can even reach 7690.

I donot understand what can of fundamental triggers exist to justify such a move. Only, reason such upside can come is via massive fund infusion in stock market. This can possible if Ben Bernanke does a QE 3 in the US and the money finds its way to all Emerging Markets. This rise shall be somethign absolutely massive with high Precious & Base Metal prices coupled with high Agro-Commodity prices.

Here are the charts:

 Preferred Count:

Alternate: Bearish:

Alternate: Extreme Bullish

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