Nifty Intraday Update: 8th Jul 2010

Nifty Intraday Update:

Still maintain the bearish perspective on Nifty. Nifty has made a high of 5339.50. Seems nifty may now have completed wavce 2 high. I donot wish to move to alternate scenario.

Possible Wolfe wave in structure in wave c of wav 2. The wave 2 has retraced near 80%. I am now tired of such deep retracements. If this break down, lets see future. For a wolfe wave based target, nifty has 5200 on cards SL 5355.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

ACC Analysis dated 6th Jul 2010

Seems that ACC has completed Wave 2 on upside. The retracement is not a wave 2 typical retracement, the retracement currently is only 38.2%.

ACC shall be a sell below TL1 (Rs. 836), which shall lead to a cup and handle structure, with a price target of Rs. 789, from the lip of cup at 836. This is bearish setup. THe stock has given a negative crossover of 3 major EMAs (5,13, 34) and is coupled with a drop in ATR. As mentioned in previous post in Reliance, a low in ATR generally marks a change in trend. A break above 863 shall be bullish for the stock and break below 836 shall be bearish.

ACC EOD Chart Wave Count

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Reliance Analysis dated 6th Jul 2010

RIL completed it wave 1 down move [depicted in yellow font orange box] on an open low of Rs. 976 on 30th June. From that point Reliance has moved up in a flat formation 3-3-5 depicted in blue font a-b-c, ending at 30 Jun high of Rs. 1093. The rise of wave c od wave wave 2 has been a rather a Rising Diagonal type structure, a  break of line connect TL 1 shall be majorly bearish for reliance. The monthly pivot for reliance is at 1056, a rather strong support. The 34 EMA is at Rs. 1054. The bottom supports are in place. I expect a break of TL 1, which shall trigger a wave 3 for reliance, with a target of approximately Rs. 825.

Further the ATR is a lowest from Jan 2010, which also signals an change in trend is possible. Generally a lower ATR is accompanied by a change in trend, as it marks an exhaustion of currrent trend. The current ATR(14) is 23.

EOD Chart of Reliance:

Trade Strategy for RIL: A break of 1059 on EOD could be used to Short with a Stop loss of 1105 (earlier was wrong). This shall be an EOD based strategy. Upside potential is limited for Reliance, however, a break above today's high of 1081 shall be bullish, but i expect a target of only 1100 odd on RIL which shall be converging point for trendline joining (i) and (iii). Also, wave (iv) of wave 1 down is at 1100 which is rather huge resistance for upside move.

Refer Disclaimer in previous post...

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis dated 6th Jul 2010

I have been bearish, since my last many posts. And I have not updated blog for long. Now, this is count is only a continuation of my previous posts. I have been counting a completion of Ending Daigonal structure for Nifty at 5398 (7th Apr 2010). The wave 1 completed at 4786 (25 May 2010). This is a 48 days fall. Now, I am considering a time frame based structure, where I am considerinf wave 1 as part 1 of structure and wave 2 as part 2 of tiems structure. Assuming the 48 days as 0.618 of time frame, the balance preiod is 0.382, which works out to 30 days.

Now, 30 days from 25 May works out to 23 June 2010, which should have been the time frame for wave 2. I am counting 5378 as top of wave 2, which is very very deep retracement, but it fits the time equation, considering the top been made a day or 2 in advance on 21 June 2010, from where nifty declined to 5225 on 30 June 2010, which I am considering wave i of wave 1 of wave [3] and the rise today can be considered as wave ii. The structure is still inside the channel.

Although today was a good bullish candle, it still has not broken the high or low of the 30 Jun 2010 candle - 5323 & 5225 - today's range is 5324 - 5233. I still consider it from structure as an Inside Bar structure. On the EMA front, a bear candle could have triggered a 5-13 crossover. The major downside support are as follows:
a. 30 June 2010 low: 5225
b. monthly pivot at : 5209
c. 34 EMA at : 5205
d. 55 EMA at 5178
e. Weekly S1 support at : 5202

A reckon on prefered count scenario to have completed wave ii and Nifty to enter in wave iii of wave 1, whose target is 5166. The major further target for wave 3 is 5082 t0 5050 level. However, tomorrow's price action will determine the market move.

See the EOD chart of Nifty with wave count below:

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Nifty Intraday Update 5th Jul 2010

Nifty 30 min chart attached:

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students

Gold: Multi Year Top: Long Term Elliott Wave Count

GOLD..

Its difficult to stare from TOP.. But if this is it. then something fishy is happenning.. Gold maybe doing some nasty business..

Will post more detailed analysis on GOLD. This seems like $1275 is a major major TOP for GOLD.

These studies are based on technical analysis and the author nor the webpage shall be responsible for the profits or losses. The author may or may not have personal holding. We are all students